Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/4

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Louisiana Lafayette +8.5 (-110) @ Texas: 3:30 PM CT on FOX

Never count out Louisiana Lafayette, ever, as they’re 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games as an underdog with five outright wins. They’ve also covered in eight straight nonconference games, and are on a 13-5 road ATS run. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a giant killer looking for their next victim, and have the best team in school history to do it.

Louisiana is physically capable of matching up with almost any team in the country, especially with a secondary that’s willing and able to play man coverage against any receiver. They’re also returning 21 starters from last season’s 10-win team, and head coach Billy Napier has stuck around despite being one of the most sought-after coaches in the country. QB Levi Lewis is electric, and he gets big-play receiver Jamal Bell back from injury for this year. Let’s not forget this team beat Iowa State to open last season when the Cyclones had perhaps their best team in school history.

All the pressure in this game is on new Texas coach Steve Sarkisian too, and the offensive guru is forced to break in a first-time starter at QB against that excellent Louisiana secondary. Running back Bijan Robinson is a sneaky Heisman contender and will get a ton of work, but that gives Louisiana more opportunity to hang around. Texas has a habit of underperforming in these spots recently, going just 7-9-1 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a live dog in this one, so take the points in what should be a highly entertaining game.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) New Mexico State Team Total Under 9.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on CBS Sports Network

I’ll be going against New Mexico State every opportunity I get this season, as the Aggies are fielding one of the absolute worst teams in the country. Against a San Diego State team with big questions on offense though, I’m taking a different angle to fade the Aggies.

This train wreck of a program has already seen plenty of action this calendar year, playing two games this spring against FCS competition. It didn’t go well, as the Aggies got housed by D1 newcomer Tarleton State and just snuck by Dixie State, another new D1 team. Losing last Saturday to a low-quality UTEP team while only scoring 3 points shows exactly what NMSU will do all season long, and now they face an actual good team in San Diego State.

This Aztec defense is still one of the best around, not skipping a beat last season in the first year without legendary coach and defensive wizard Rocky Long. They were 11th in scoring defense last year employing their unique 3-3-5 scheme, and everyone in the front six returns this year. If SDSU plays their typical style and to their potential New Mexico State won’t score at all in this game, so 9.5 points is a massive bar to reach for such a terrible team.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 369-267 ATS (+83.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.