Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/30

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Georgia -14.5 @ Auburn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS

We’re all waiting patiently for Georgia to justify their top spot in the polls and finally flex on someone. They haven’t needed to with such a soft schedule to start the year, but this game against a traditional SEC power will require their attention.

I give the Bulldogs a massive edge offensively in this game though, as the past 6 quarters of football have seen them wake up on that side of the ball. Carson Beck finally starting to click, the play-calling finally getting Brock Bowers involved, and now getting Ladd McConkey back should help UGA look like the juggernaut they’re supposed to be.

Auburn meanwhile is in trouble at quarterback, and will be forced to go back to Payton Thorne for this game despite him looking objectively awful so far. The bottom line for the Tigers is they’ve faced two Power-5 opponents and only managed 430 total yards with 24 total points. Neither of those teams had the talent that Georgia’s defense does, and I think the Bulldogs finally shine against a high-profile but weakened opponent.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Kansas Team Total Under 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

It’s tough to fade the Kansas offense after they’ve gone over this number every game and averaged 37.7 PPG in the process. But their schedule has been extremely weak, and now they face a Texas defense that’s worlds of difference from what they’ve feasted on so far. The Longhorns know full well how to shut down the Kansas attack, as they did it last year in Lawrence by only allowing 14 points.

Texas has an even better defense this season, especially up front, and their ability to stop the Kansas run game should be the key here. Without their ground game clicking the Jayhawks fall apart schematically, and that’s bad news in a hostile environment like this. I’m hesitant to lay it with Texas since they’re in a lookahead spot to Oklahoma next week, but I think the defense that’s allowing 12.5 PPG shines again.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon @ Stanford +27 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on Pac12 Network

It doesn’t get any more classic than this for situational spots in college football, which you absolutely must pay attention to. Oregon’s public flogging of Colorado last week puts them in a letdown spot here against a bad Stanford squad that can easily be overlooked by a top-10 team. That’s especially the case when you have an enormous game on the horizon, which Oregon does after a bye next week in traveling to Washington for a top-10 tilt. To be clear, Stanford is not a good team, with an inexplicable loss at home to Sacramento State. But putting Bo Nix on the road in such a classic sandwich spot like this, with Oregon getting a lot of attention after last week, has me taking this big number with the Cardinal.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan State Team Total Under 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC

There’s a theory that says Michigan State will respond as a team after their coach was officially fired this week. I just don’t see it, not on the road against this kind of opponent, and especially not since the Mel Tucker news has been around for weeks. The Spartans managed 9 and 7 points in the two games since the news broke, and that was against teams with defenses vastly inferior to what Iowa has.

The Hawkeyes should be mad and motivated here after getting stomped by Penn State last week, and being back home against a troubled program is the recipe for getting right. This defense is still one of the best in the country by most metrics, and given the situation I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes pitch a shutout tonight.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) San Diego St @ Air Force -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This Air Force team is not just some cute service academy anymore. They’ve built a real program that’s looking excellent this season, and are out for revenge against an opponent that’s given them trouble for years but are having a down season.

The Falcons are of course still a triple-option offense that rarely throws the ball, but they’re running it to perfection right now. I think they continue that success on the ground here, running right through a San Diego State defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season, good for 13th-worst in the country.

And on the opposite side, you just can’t run on this Air Force defense that’s 5th nationally in rushing yards allowed. The Aztecs are extremely reliant on quarterback Jalen Mayden to do everything for them as he’s their leading rusher, and isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. Air Force should grind that offense to a halt while running all over SDSU tonight, pulling away by margin for another big conference win.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1527-1373 ATS (+73.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.