Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/29

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Utah/Oregon State Under 44.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

This might be the Pac12 and it might be after dark, but this is not shaping up to be anything close to a shootout. The defenses in this game are truly excellent, especially Utah who is fourth in the country against the run. The Utes just held an elite UCLA rushing offense to 9 total yards on 32 carries, and match up well against an Oregon State team that wants to keep it on the ground.

I just don’t think the Beavers will be able to attack Utah through the air as the old and suspect DJ Uiagalelei has reappeared after a big first game. DJ U and the Oregon State offense have yet to face anything close to a top-tier defense, and I think they get slowed down here. Conversely, I don’t have much faith in the Utah offense that’s 98th in scoring, and doesn’t seem to know which quarterback will start. This game has the makings of a strength-on-strength slugfest that stays under the low total.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Somewhat remarkably, this line is set right on the season average for Dallas in their games against the Aces of 84.0 points. A few considerations need to be made though, as I think the Wings are in a good place to get over it. First is their scoring ability in home games, as the league’s 3rd-highest scoring team overall averaged 89.1 PPG at home this year, and went 18-4 over this team total.

Next is Las Vegas’ defensive struggles on the road which I’ve pointed out all summer, and I don’t think they’ll be magically fixed just because it’s the playoffs. Dallas is so fast paced and big inside that it can give the Aces trouble, so win or lose I see the Wings getting over this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1527-1373 ATS (+73.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.