Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/28

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Lions -2 @ Green Bay Packers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This is mostly a gut feeling pick, but also backed up by the fact that Jared Goff is 10-2 ATS against the NFC North as a Lion. Since I talked it up on my podcast last night though, I have to back it up here. Not including games when the Packers don’t have their starting quarterback playing, the Lions haven’t been favored in Lambeau since 1986. There’s probably a reason for that tonight, along with good reason why this line moved through zero and continues to tick up, so I’ll go with the steam on this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Lions/Packers Under 46 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

These teams are becoming much more defensive oriented in recent years, with slow paces of play as well. That was obvious last year when they combined for 24 and 36 points in the two meetings. They’re both top-12 defensive teams in total defensive DVOA, with the one glaring weakness being Green Bay’s inability to stop the run. But with running back issues galore for Detroit, I don’t see them exploiting that too much. Primetime unders just keep cashing, going 67% since the start of last year and already 9-2 this season, so I’ll count on another here.

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

(0.75 Unit) Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.75 Unit) Luke Musgrave Over 3.5 Receptions (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.25 Unit) Romeo Doubs Anytime Touchdown (+200; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.25 Unit) Jordan Love Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on CBSSN

Two straight road losses for Western Kentucky have depressed their power rating, but those were fairly expected since the Hilltoppers traditionally struggle away from home. Being the home team again, in a primetime game where the crowd should be pumped up, gives them a big advantage that they’ve typically capitalized on in recent years.

And I don’t understand why Middle Tennessee is priced so generously here, as the Blue Raiders are essentially dining out on keeping it close against Missouri when the Tigers were in an obvious look-ahead spot. Middle Tennessee really struggles against the pass, ranking bottom-15 in the country for metrics like pass success allowed, PFF coverage, and finishing drives. All WKU wants to do is throw it with their elite passing game, and should be able to score at will here to pull away by far more than a touchdown.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Sam Houston State Team Total Under 14.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Sam Houston State has had a fairly un-friendly welcome to the FBS ranks this season, particularly when it comes to offense. Defensively they’re excellent, one of the top tackling teams in the country and strong against the pass, but that’s what they’ve had to lean on. The Bearkats just can’t find the end zone, scoring one touchdown this year and totaling 10 points in their 3 games.

I don’t see it changing tonight for the team that’s not only dead last in yards and points per game, but ranks near the bottom of the country in all kinds of deeper metrics as well. Sam Houston also has uncertainty at quarterback for this game against a Jacksonville State team that’s well-coached with a strong defense. This number being above two touchdowns is just too big for a team that’s so offensively inept.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1525-1371 ATS (+73.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.