Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/27

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Atlanta Braves Over 10 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South

I hope these teams meet in the playoffs because it’s a fun matchup of two offenses that can go off at any moment. I think those offenses are the story again tonight after last night’s 13-run affair. That was fueled by poor pitching and defense, something we’ll see more of tonight with Jameson Taillon starting and a bad Cubs defense behind him. Taillon is a good fade on the road this season with a 5.56 ERA, and the Braves lineup has a career .327 average against him.

Atlanta will likely have to out-slug Chicago here again because of their own pitching problems, with the lack of depth on display here. Darius Vines gets another start, and the first few have been unimpressive and very short, bringing a suspect Braves bullpen into play. If this turns into a bullpen game for either team, I see the opposing offense jumping on that bad pitching and pushing this game over the total.

MLB (0.25 Unit) LA Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 12.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

This is a game where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers clear this total on their own. They’ve done it twice to Colorado this season, and got close again last night with 11 runs. But I’ve yet to see anything from their starter Emmet Sheehan to suggest he isn’t a liability given his FIP and xFIP numbers aligning with his 5.13 ERA.

So the Rockies should be able to capitalize on Sheehan and a still shaky Dodgers bullpen, and they’ll need it if they want to compensate for Noah Davis starting. The righty from the bottom of Colorado’s pitching barrel has only gotten through 9 total innings at Coors, allowing 16 runs in the process. The Dodgers seemed very upset about getting held down yesterday afternoon, and I think they put up another big number against a terrible pitching staff.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1524-1370 ATS (+73.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.