Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/21

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

NY Giants @ SF 49ers -4.5

This game smells like a blowout, with the 49ers in their home opener and the Giants on a short week after an exhausting comeback. And that’s not to mention New York being without Saquon Barkley against what looks like an elite and hungry defense. But weird stuff happens in the NFL, especially in Thursday night games, and I’m not laying double digits with anyone just on principle. While this is not the traditional teaser, it does get me below double digits and both touchdown margin numbers. The 49ers might be the best team in the league, and they should show it with an easy win here.

NY Giants/SF 49ers Over 38

How much the Giants can contribute to this total without Barkley is a big question, but I’m counting on San Francisco to score the bulk of it. With 30 points in both of their games this year, the 49ers seem to be out to show that Brock Purdy is definitely not Mr Irrelevant. The ease with which the Cowboys and Cardinals scored on the Giants is probably going to be replicated and expanded on by this offense. The Giants might not get much on the board until garbage time, but the 49ers have shown vulnerability to offenses in desperation mode, so I think they get enough to push this game over the teased total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) SF 49ers -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)

First half bets aren’t my favorite, but the San Francisco dominance early in games can’t be ignored. The 49ers were dominant in first halves last season, especially offensively, and it’s carried over into this year where they’ve racked up a plus-30 point differential. The Giants by contrast are the first team in history to start a season down 60-0 after 6 quarters, putting up a minus-37 point differential in the first half. I expect the 49ers to start strong in their home opener here and be up comfortably at halftime.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Darren Waller Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Where else can the Giants turn with Saquon out tonight? Their collection of no-name receivers aren’t scaring anyone, so that leaves Waller as the main threat in the passing game. Whether it’s targeting him early or producing in garbage time, I think Daniel Jones and the Giants rely on their excellent tight end tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1517-1364 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.