Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/20

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Marquee

After a 14-1 win last night, the Cubs are due for some mean reversion, but that would just put them in their normal state of beating up on the Pirates. Even before yesterday’s blowout, Chicago had a plus-4.7 average run differential against Pittsburgh this season, and now have 9 run-line wins in the 11 meetings.

The Cubs have scored 8 or more runs in 7 of those games, brutalizing the bad Pirates pitching staff. While the Pirates have their best pitcher going today in Mitch Keller, Chicago counters with their best in Justin Steele. While this could be a pitcher’s duel with regression biting the Cubs, I’ll take a shot at this juicy price that they can continue their usual dominance in this series.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/LA Dodgers Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Just like Monday, I have to jump on this total that’s lined as if there are brand-name starting pitchers facing off. Again, that’s just not the case with Reese Olson and Bobby Miller starting tonight, on top of bullpens that don’t inspire confidence. Last night’s 3-2 game was the result of a strange pitching strategy by both teams, using openers and bullpen games. Tonight will be much more of a typical game from a pitching standpoint, with two average-at-best starters. The Dodgers tend to bounce back well after quiet nights at the plate and are still the best over bet in the league, so I’m looking for them to fuel an over in this game on another low number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1517-1362 ATS (+74.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.