Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/19

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

The NFL is drunk right now, let's face it. I didn’t think I’d see a wilder early window of games than I did in Week 1 until yesterday happened. No lead appears to be safe, and massive upsets are everywhere. But the lesson I’m taking away from two weeks of chaos is that you can’t stray too far from your preseason expectations of teams – at least not yet. In the spirit of not overreacting and being able to take advantage of a Monday night doubleheader, I’m teasing a couple of numbers that are too good to pass up.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills -4: 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

One of my main priors about this Buffalo team is that they’ve been stewing all spring and summer about their walk-off loss in the playoffs. The fact that they could beat the defending champs by 3 touchdowns to open the season, albeit while committing 4 turnovers, confirms that they can roll over anyone. This team is equipped with arguably the best roster in the league and well-suited to go on a revenge tour.

That tour has an important stop tonight as they face the Titans. The past two seasons have seen Buffalo fall to Tennessee, and the Bills should be out for blood tonight. I expected regression from Tennessee after earning the AFC’s top seed, and that bore out in Week 1. Facing the Bills juggernaut for the home opener in Buffalo minus their top defender in Harold Landry should be too much for the Titans to handle. I’ll tease Buffalo to this more manageable number since ten points is a lot in the NFL, even though I think they roll big again.

Minnesota Vikings/Philadelphia Eagles Over 43: 7:30 PM CT on ABC

My preseason priors of this Vikings team included a belief that they would have an excellent offense given the talent and new head coach. That offense put up 23 points on a Green Bay team expected to have a strong defense as Justin Jefferson was unstoppable. But I expected a tough season out of the defense, especially in the secondary, and shutting down the Packers seemingly had more to do with injuries and time to prepare.

This Eagles offense is a different animal. It's as multidimensional as it gets in the NFL right now. The Vikings have had far less time to prepare for a team that just hung 31 points and took their foot off the gas for the whole 4th quarter. The Philly defense also got cooked by a team less talented than the Vikings offensively, so we should see plenty of points tonight. Tonight’s total rose almost 4 points from the open, but this teased number gets below the opener for a big discount in a game that has shootout written all over it.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

Fantasy football aficionados were beyond shocked to see Sanders get into the end zone last week, as he’s known for racking up the yards but never around the goal line. To be fair, he also ran for 96 yards and should be in for another strong showing on the ground tonight. This complex and tough-to-defend Eagles running game will face a Vikings defense that was gashed on the ground last week. The Packers running back duo managed 6.3 yards per carry, and an even more run-heavy Philly offense should get Sanders over this prop.

Degenerates

NFL Isaiah McKenzie Anytime TD Scorer (+260): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

McKenzie appeared to be under-utilized in Week 1 due to such a disjointed game where Buffalo committed 4 turnovers. But he did get into the end zone, proving his importance on this Bills team. The slot receiver has a bigger role in this offense than everyone not named Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs, and that role could grow even more tonight with Gabriel Davis considered iffy to play. Look for McKenzie to have a big day against a Titans team already missing one starting cornerback and get another score to cash this juicy return.

Tiny Nick is 859-725 ATS (+73 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.