Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/16

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Florida State/Louisville Under 63.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The rational part of my brain is telling me not to tease college football, and certainly not college football totals. But on a Friday in September where baseball teams are playing out the string, sometimes rationale has to take a back seat. And the seasons these defenses are having so far are actually quite surprising, making this play fairly sensible.

Both squads shut down high-powered offenses in their last game, defying their perceptions as teams that get into shootouts. Both have excellent playmakers on offense, particularly at quarterback, but neither team has put it together offensively this season. That’s why they’re a combined 4-0 to the under by a cumulative 13-point average margin. This total was already above the key number of 56, and now we’re moving it past the key number of 63, making me love this from a pure numbers standpoint.

Air Force @ Wyoming +22.5: 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This is an excellent fit for a solid handicapping system in college football: a big underdog in a game with a low total. It also just so happens that the big underdog is a home dog in a notoriously tough place to play. But in a game with a total of only 47, getting more than 3 touchdowns with the home team is excellent value. Smart money bought this spread back towards Wyoming when it touched 17, so I’m loving the added cushion through more key numbers.

To be clear, I don’t love Wyoming as a team, but they play well at home and especially in conference home games. They’ve also kept it well within this number in their recent meetings with Air Force, a team I feel is a little overvalued. The Falcons beat up on cupcake opponents at home, but this is a different task on the road. They’re also going to almost exclusively run the ball, bleeding the clock and keeping the total score low. That feeds into the system match and should allow the Cowboys to stay relatively competitive on their home field.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 854-722 ATS (+74.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.