Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/15

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Virginia/Maryland Over 47 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

I’m very surprised to see this total so low given what we’ve seen from both defenses so far. Virginia has gotten rolled on defense in both games, which is not surprising given the expectations and quality of opponent. Maryland’s offense behind Taulia Tagovailoa and Roman Hemby is going to strain that poor defense again, which ranks 131st in rushing success rate and 129th in tackling. But the Maryland defense hasn’t been great either, and Virginia found success both on the ground and in the air last week against a much better James Madison defense. The Cavaliers should be playing from behind all game, and that should lead to plenty of points tonight in perfect weather conditions.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Miami Marlins (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network

I can’t ignore the consistency here in how dominant Atlanta has been over Miami all year. The Braves lead the season series 9-1, and all 9 of those wins have been by multiple runs. In fact, Atlanta has a plus-5.4 average margin against the Marlins on the year, and are in good position to continue that trend. With Bryce Elder starting, they can hold down a Marlins team that continue to struggle against right-handed pitching. And the excellent Braves bats should keep the bad run for Johnny Cueto going, as his high 6.15 ERA is fully justified by his underlying metrics at this point. The Marlins offense has cooled off, and I don’t think they can keep pace with a Braves team that should roll again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs -0.5 First Five Innings @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+100; Odd via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

Interesting that MLB Network is covering this game to give Justin Steele a high-profile spot to continue his Cy Young campaign. He’s in a battle with Blake Snell for the award, and I think he shines in this game against an Arizona team in a tough spot. The Diamondbacks are back from New York on no rest, and have Brandon Pfaadt starting here. The Cubs knocked him around in his last outing, and should jump on him early tonight. With Steele allowing just one total run in his past three starts, I think the D’backs get held down early while the Cubs build a lead that their bullpen may or may not squander.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Atlanta took advantage of a very weak schedule down the stretch to sneak into the playoffs, but these teams are just not on the same level. It’s been obvious this season, with Dallas covering this number in all three meetings, and the margin of victory increasing every game. That coincides with the Dream getting worse as the season went on, particularly defensively where the excellent and up-tempo Wings offense can run it up. The obviously better teams rolled by huge margins on Wednesday showing the gulf between good and average in the WNBA, and the Wings should continue that tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1500-1348 ATS (+68.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.