Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/14

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Zack Greinke is the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde pitcher depending on if he's at home or away. It’s incredibly strange but also can be incredibly profitable in a spot like this against a Twins team that knows how to crush him. Even with so many of Minnesota's important bats on the shelf, their current roster still has a .322 average and .781 OPS against Greinke.

But the most important stat here has to be Greinke’s consistent struggles on the road this year. He’s posted a 6.33 ERA and .322 on-base average allowed in road games, and at Target Field those numbers are 5.40 and .341, respectively. He also never goes very deep in games, bringing into play a bullpen that’s 29th in ERA and 30th in xFIP this season. Despite the Twins being a MASH unit, they still should have enough offensive punch to exploit bad pitching and get over this isolated total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

I’m afraid the rumors of a Patrick Corbin resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. The Washington lefty put together 3 quality starts in a row, including stunning the Mets over Labor Day Weekend. But then the usual version showed up in his last start, and I’m counting on it continuing tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. Despite their playoff chances dwindling, this Orioles team still fights, and that has me trusting them at the plate tonight.

They already know how to hit Corbin, as they put up 7 runs in a rain-shortened 6-inning game when they faced him back in June. And their lineup has a cumulative .333 average and 1.007 OPS against Corbin. As a lineup dominated by right-handed bats, they’re perfect for exploiting Corbin’s massive struggles against that side of the plate. Put the recent success from Corbin aside, his true self should be on display tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/AZ Diamondbacks Over 9 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

The last two nights have seen the Dodgers completely shut down this Diamondbacks team behind two of their best starters. But tonight they’re forced to give a spot start to Michael Grove because of injuries in their rotation.

That’s good news for Arizona. They get an inexperienced righty instead of the excellent lefties they’ve faced in those two shutout losses. The D’Backs are sneaky good against right-handed pitching and rapidly getting better the past couple of months, now up to 13th in OPS and 9th in scoring against righties.

And the Dodgers are going to continue raking at the plate like they usually do. They’re averaging 7.1 runs per game in their past 10. They’ll also face a righty in Zach Davies, which is an excellent matchup for them. LA mashes righties in general, the best in baseball for scoring, slugging, OPS, and ISO power numbers. Davies has faced the Dodgers 3 times this season, compiling a 7.43 ERA, so he’s likely in trouble again here. With both offenses in advantageous spots, this should turn into a pretty high-scoring affair.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 852-720 ATS (+74.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.