Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/13

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on MASN

Because baseball, the Orioles offense went ice cold last night against an awful pitcher. I don’t expect it to happen on consecutive nights, not for a team that’s averaged 6.5 runs per game over the past 4 weeks. I really don’t expect it against rookie Cardinals pitcher Drew Rom, as the rookie has been knocked around in most of his big league action, causing his starts to go 3-1 over this high total.

And speaking of pitchers who tend to get knocked around, Kyle Gibson will get another start for the Orioles tonight. Gibson tends to blow up the most at home this year, where his past 8 starts are 6-2 over this total. The St Louis offense has been red hot while the pitching has mostly been awful, causing their past 10 games to average 12.0 runs per game. I think that continues here given the suspect starting pitching.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PH

This total is on the rise as two teams that seem to constantly get into slugfests wrap up this series. There have been 43 runs the past 3 games over yesterday and Monday, going well over this total each time. The presence of Spencer Strider taking the mound for Atlanta holds this total down, but I’m not sold on him doing much to keep this low-scoring. Strider tends to pitch himself right out of what was his Cy Young award with erratic outings, including his past two.

With the way Philadelphia is hitting right now, averaging 6.1 runs per game their past 20 games, they could create another bad night for the Braves righty. But I think Atlanta jumps on Cristopher Sanchez as they have most lefties this season, and continues their torrid pace of 6.3 runs on average in their past 20 games. Monday’s doubleheader and last night’s extra-innings game have worn out the bullpens, which should only add to the scoring and push this over the number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1497-1343 ATS (+68.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.