Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/12

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on MASN

The Orioles are just simply rolling as they march towards the top AL playoff seed. Baltimore is 26-11 since the start of August, and 20 of those 26 wins have come by multiple runs. So if you think they’re going to win, they’re most likely going to do it while covering the run line. Against Adam Wainwright and his 8.79 ERA in road games, that dominance should continue here for the Orioles. Wainwright and the Cardinals are the polar opposite of Baltimore, losing 10 of his past 11 starts by multiple runs. The O’s have the best run line cover percentage as a favorite for a reason, and they’ll pad that record tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

The Brewers rolled yesterday in a game where I thought their offense might struggle against a lefty starter. Putting them up against a right-handed starter today should allow them to stay hot at the plate. The Marlins will start reliever JT Chargois today as injuries to their pitchers keep piling up, and hot Milwaukee bats should have no trouble. But I expect Miami to stay cold against Freddy Peralta, whose 2.09 ERA and 0.80 WHIP the past 8 starts have him rolling. The Marlins showed their futility against righties last night, and tonight should be no different as the Brewers pull away here.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Houston Astros Team Total Over 5.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet SW

JP Sears has had two very nice starts in a row for Oakland, but I have to believe his true version is the one that put up an 8.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP last month. Opponents went 5-0 over this total in those August starts, averaging 7.8 runs. And as a lefty, he’s going up against an Astros team that has absolutely crushed left-handed pitching since their lineup returned to full health. Houston is second in scoring against lefties, and have the highest weighted runs created number. They should be in for a bounce back after getting blanked last night, and I think they tee off on Sears and the atrocious Oakland bullpen.

MLB (0.65 Unit) Chicago Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Colorado Rockies (-130; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

The Chicago bullpen melted down again last night as it tends to do, turning a run line win into just a one-run win. I’m tempted to go back to that well, but instead I’m looking to the first five innings here with such a mismatch of starting pitchers. I’ve been very high on Cubs starter Javier Assad, and he’s been elite on the road with a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a .200 opponent batting average. He should hold down the Rockies while the Chicago bats punish Chris Flexen here. The Rockies righty is a true gas can, and the Cubs should jump on him early to establish a first-five lead.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1496-1340 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.