Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/11

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Buffalo Bills @ NY Jets +8

Ultimately I think the Bills can win this game, but I can’t pass up this many points. Home underdogs in a Week 1 divisional game like the Jets actually win outright at an 88% clip since 2012, so this truly projects as a close game that justifies the tight spread. There are still a lot of unknowns with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets, what the Hard Knocks effect will be, and how Buffalo rebounds from their injury-plagued 2022 season. But holding a full possession of points given the success of divisional home dogs is where the value lies in my opinion.

Buffalo Bills/NY Jets Under 51.5

Until proven otherwise, primetime unders are still a dominant trend in the league. That’s evidenced by the Thursday and Sunday night games going under fairly comfortably, so Monday night should be no different. The total was bet down from the open of 47.5, and since 2005 when the under takes money in primetime it cashes at a 63.1% rate. Both of these teams have elite defenses that get lost in the hype around their respective starting quarterbacks. Not only do divisional matchups like this favor the underdog, they also favor the under, and I’m glad to move this total up well above where it opened.

NFL Monday Night Football Prop Picks

(0.5 Unit) Garrett Wilson Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): When you win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White throwing you the ball, you’re pretty good. The connection with Aaron Rodgers should be fairly solid right away this season.

(0.75 Unit) Gabe Davis Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): Davis is fully healthy after ankle issues slowed him last year. Sauce Gardner shadowing Stefon Diggs should create opportunity for Davis to get open against a lesser corner in DJ Reed.

(0.5 Unit) James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+115; Odds via DraftKings): I’m buying into preseason hype here that Cook will get a lot of work in passing situations, and that he has shaken off some rookie struggles.

(0.5 Unit) Dalton Kincaid Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): Kincaid should see plenty of work in the slot, where there’s always been tons of production in Buffalo’s offense. The Jets tend to struggle against tight ends, allowing 5.5 receptions and 61.1 yards per game last year, so the opportunity will be there.

MLB (1.2 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Colorado Rockies (-120; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

There are a couple important angles I’m looking at here that say Chicago should roll in this game. First is that the Rockies played on Sunday Night Baseball, lost the game, and had to travel before playing again today. Fading teams in that situation has been a profitable angle for years, as has fading Colorado in their first game back from a road trip.

That ties in to this being somewhat of a Malinsky Special as the Rockies return home after 6 games on the road. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been hit hard in Coors lately, posting an 8.06 ERA his past 5 home starts. As a lefty he’s what the Cubs hit best, and they should have no trouble pulling away for an easy win tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) San Diego Padres ML @ LA Dodgers (+145; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Talk about Malinsky Specials, this spot is absolutely brutal for the Dodgers and I think it bites them tonight. You have to take a shot with San Diego here despite LA owning them for years now, as the Dodgers return home from an east coast road trip without a day off. It doesn’t help the Dodgers that they’re without Mookie Betts for a while, or that they’re starting Gavin Stone again. The rookie righty with his 10.50 ERA and 2.28 WHIP could be in trouble even against the Padres who struggle against righties. But it’s primarily the situational handicap for me here, and it’s worth a shot at this big return.

Degenerates

MLB Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers Under 7 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

This is just too perfect, a custom-made pitching matchup for both teams to struggle offensively. The Marlins are facing a righty today, putting them in their far worse split, and it’s not just any right-handed starter. Brandon Woodruff has been excellent and getting better since returning from injury, and the Marlins have struggled to produce against righties all year. And with Miami starting Jesus Luzardo, a Brewers offense that’s bottom-5 against lefties should stay quiet as well. I’d usually go F5 under but that leaves no room for error on such a low number, so I’ll trust quality bullpens to help keep this under the total.

Tiny Nick is 1494-1337 ATS (+70.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.