Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/10

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Vikings/Tampa Bay Bucs Over 45.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I believe the quote from Vikings camp was that they “want to win games 40-30.” You obviously have to factor in coach-speak there, but it’s not a ringing endorsement of the defense they’ll be trotting out this year. I’ve had my own concerns about that side of the ball, and Baker Mayfield with nothing to lose and plenty of receiving weapons should cut loose. Meanwhile, the Vikings offense in year 2 of the Kevin O’Connell system should continue to grow and put up plenty of points. Kirk Cousins is the most profitable QB to the over since 2021 at 22-12, and Week 1 indoor games since 2015 are 24-15 to the over. I think we’re in for a shootout that makes this total far too low.

NFL (0.5 Unit Each) Atlanta Falcons Team Total Under 21.5 and Carolina Panthers Team Total Under 17.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

The full game total of 40 is interesting to me here, but I’d rather split a unit on both teams being futile offensively and hope for the best. I really don’t think Carolina does much here, debuting a rookie quarterback behind a porous offensive line, with two of his top receiving targets out today. And the Falcons are a run-heavy team under Arthur Smith with plenty of weapons, but will try to force that style against what Carolina’s strength is defensively. It also seems like Brian Burns might play today, giving a massive boost to the Panthers defense, and I expect a divisional slugfest here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This line pushed through the key number of 3 in a Week 1 divisional game, which tells you all the smart money is on Atlanta here. As the top overall pick back in April, Bryce Young is facing some rough history. Quarterbacks drafted #1 overall are 7-19 ATS in their first start, and when that comes in Week 1 they’re 5-12 ATS and 3-13-1 straight up. Add in new Carolina coach Frank Reich being winless in Week 1 for his career, and the Falcons should take this by more than a field goal.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens First Half -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Backing Lamar Jackson in the first half used to be one of the most profitable angles available. While that’s fallen off recently, a lot can be blamed on the difficulties of the organization. With healthy weapons around him and Todd Monken debuting his offense in the pros, I’m looking for Lamar to get out to a fast start against what is still one of the worst rosters in football. I have no interest in laying the full-game number since Houston has a history of back-door covers, but this should be a coming out party for the Ravens in a season with lots of excitement around them.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 15.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This team has every intention of losing as much as possible this season, so I dare either Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune to put up points on the Washington defense. The Commanders still have one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and should dominate a poor Arizona offensive line. Week 1 usually comes with its fair share of surprises, but success from Arizona in this situation would be one of the most surprising possibilities to me.

NFL (0.5 Unit Each) Miami Dolphins/LA Chargers Over 51 and First Quarter Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

This matchup last season seemed like one of the most obvious over plays, but fell well short in a 23-17 Chargers victory. I have my questions about whether Tua Tagovailoa was right for that game given how the rest of the season unfolded, but I’m pretty sure he’s at full strength today. The absence of Tarron Armstead for Miami will force the Dolphins to get the ball out even faster than usual, and I see some quick strikes from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against some suspect LA corners. And with Kellen Moore now in charge of the Chargers offense, expect lots of downfield shots to their big, elite receivers. Those big plays should start right away and last all game to pile up plenty of points.

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+130; Odds via Caesars)

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-225): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

I have no idea why the spread in this game is so short, but I’m not worried about it here. I just don’t see how the Rams without Cooper Kupp can put up much offense against an improved Seattle defense. And without Googling, I defy you to name one player on the Rams defense aside from Aaron Donald; go ahead, I’ll wait. With all of their elite trio of receivers available for this game, I think Geno Smith and the Seahawks carve up that no-name defense with ease. My conspiracy theory is that LA is in a tank-off with Arizona this season, and that starts today with a lopsided loss in Seattle.

Dallas Cowboys (-170) @ NY Giants: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

If you knew the extent of all my Cowboys bets this week you’d curl up in the fetal position. But let’s just ask them to win this game against a team they’ve dominated in the past. When Dak Prescott starts against the Giants, the Cowboys are 10-2 straight up. New Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves man coverage with lots of blitzing, which Dak Prescott is actually elite against. Meanwhile, the Daniel Jones era has seen the Giants struggle more at home than on the road, and under the lights of primetime Jones is just 1-10 straight up. That’s really all I need to know, so how ‘bout them Cowboys to close this parlay.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 @ Indianapolis Colts: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Like a lot of people, I’m pretty high on the Jaguars this season and pretty low on the Colts. With a rookie QB in Anthony Richardson starting, whose erratic performances in the preseason immediately caused this line to rise, I see the Jags being able to control this game throughout. It’s a very public side and I’m breaking a semi-cardinal rule by teasing through zero, but I’m just not seeing how Indy wins this game. They’re on a 2-12-1 straight up run over the past 15 years in Week 1 games, and that trend should continue here against a legit AFC contender.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -4: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Like I mentioned above, the full game line that requires laying double digits is troublesome for a number of reasons. But getting Baltimore below a touchdown is where I think the best value lies. I’m getting off the key number of 10 and through the key numbers of 7 and 6, so while it’s not a traditional teaser it still changes a lot in my favor. For all the other reasons mentioned above, I think the Ravens roll here.

NFL (0.75 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -3: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Now I get them down to the true key number of 3, maximizing the advantage. This should be self-explanatory by now and is too good to pass up.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders PICK: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I’m tempted to lay the full-game spread here of 7 points given how bad I expect Arizona to be. But instead I’ll just expect them to lose like I’m sure they want to. The Commanders have a very tough schedule ahead and need to take care of business in this bingo free space game. With a sneaky-good offense and that tough defense, I see them coming out strong in a big game for the area now that Daniel Snyder is gone.

Tennessee Titans +10 @ New Orleans Saints: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Wrapping up this teaser is another game that tempts me on the side and even the moneyline. If you’re looking for a coaching mismatch, this has to be the biggest one on the schedule for the week. Dennis Allen has been nothing short of bad his entire NFL career, while Mike Vrabel continues to get it done in underdog spots like this. The Titans are 22-9-1 ATS under Vrabel when an underdog of 3 points or less, so padding that success with an extra 7 points is too good to pass up. This projects as a lower-scoring game, so catching double digits here with a live dog is very attractive.

NFL Prop Picks

(0.5 Unit) Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.75 Unit) Kenny Pickett Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.5 Unit) Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.25 Unit) Russell Wilson Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

(0.25 Unit) Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

WNBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Not that you'd want to take time away from watching football, but this is a great opportunity in my opinion. All Las Vegas does against Phoenix is smash them early and hold that big lead down the stretch. Three meeting this season, three halftime leads of 17, 18, and 17 points, pretty remarkable consistency. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham will be out for the Mercury again today, so I don't see Phoenix improving in any way, shape, or form here. With the Liberty playing before this game and looking to steal the WNBA's best record, look for the Aces to come out firing, smash the pitiful Mercury early, and secure that best record themselves.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1488-1325 ATS (+72.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.