Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/08

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Illinois/Kansas Over 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This total will come down to whether the version of Illinois we saw last week is the true version. The Illini defense took an expected step back, allowing 28 points to Toledo after being the top scoring defense in the country last year. This week is an incredibly tougher challenge, going up against an electric Kansas offense that returns almost all its starters. Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels will also return after sitting out last week, and I expect fireworks.

Kansas started last season on fire behind Daniels until he got hurt and missed 5 games, but they still averaged 33.9 PPG on the season. Defense is their biggest problem though, and nothing was done in the offseason to improve a unit that allowed 37.6 PPG to their Power-5 opponents. Illinois is by no means a high-powered offense, but KU gave up 17 points to an FCS school last week and at least the Illini have Power-5 talent. I think both teams score plenty here on a perfect night for football in Lawrence.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/NY Yankees Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on YES

The two worst starting pitchers for these teams face off here, and two hot offenses should be ready to take advantage. The Yankees have been very consistent offensively since deciding that they didn’t want to be the first Yankee squad in decades to finish with a losing record, averaging 4.7 runs during this 10-5 stretch. They’re starting to erase some of the concerns about being able to hit righties, and Colin Rea is a pitcher they can jump on.

I also think Milwaukee keeps their bats hot, as the Brew Crew are averaging 5.3 runs per game over that same 15-game sample. They’ll be in their vastly preferred split against a righty, and it’s not your typical righty as Luis Severino gets another start. I’m ignoring 3 straight decent starts from Severino as they all came against teams who can’t hit righties. The Brewers with all their left-handed bats will bring Severino back to his usual self since he’s allowing a .335 average and 1.028 OPS to lefty hitters. That should spell plenty of runs, especially with good hitting conditions in The Bronx tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Over 4 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

The Braves should be concerned about how many runs they gave up to St Louis this week, as the Cardinals put up 26 runs in the 3-game series. Atlanta had their three best starters going in those games as well, so something is amiss with this pitching staff. Pittsburgh already touched them up for plenty of runs this season, easily going over this total in all four meetings. Bryce Elder will start for Atlanta here, and his wildly inconsistent season had its last awful game during that Pittsburgh series. The Pirates offense is definitely improving, and the number here is held down by a big price on the Braves, so I’ll look for Pittsburgh to keep knocking around this Atlanta staff.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -10 First Half @ Phoenix Mercury (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

The Aces need to win their last two games of the year to secure the best record in the league, and fortunately for them both games are against this Mercury team. Las Vegas has already blown them out twice this year by 20 and 26 points, and were leading at halftime by 17 and 18 of those respective games. The Mercury were also much healthier for those games, and are missing several key players tonight including Diana Taurasi. This has the feel of a game where the Aces want to jump out early and cruise late, so I’ll return to backing them in first halves.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces First Half Team Total Over 46.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Not only did Las Vegas have big early leads in those previous games against Phoenix, they did it by exploding offensively. The Aces scored 57 and 52 points in the first halves of the earlier meetings, running it up on one of the league’s worst defenses. Their scoring slowed down in the second half as they cruised to easy wins, so in keeping with that theory of how this game plays out, I’ll count on them to run it up early.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1485-1324 ATS (+71.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.