Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/07

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Lions/KC Chiefs Over 52.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

The NFL is officially back, and life is too short to bet the under. No, no, that’s not the only rationale here, but I’m definitely excited after a long 7 months. This number dipped down too much on the Travis Kelce news, and recent action is bumping it back up a little as bettors realize that there’s still plenty of offense on the field tonight. There’s even plenty of speculation that Kelce suits up for limited snaps or as a decoy.

Whether he does or not, I think Kansas City has plenty of other options and are too smart to not have contingency plans for their star tight end missing time. They should have success against a Lions defense that might have improved on paper, but are still coordinated by Aaron Glenn who I don’t trust. And the other missing Chiefs star has a big impact here, as their defense is nowhere near the same without Chris Jones. The offense in Detroit should be one of the league’s best again, and I think they get into a shootout with Mahomes and company.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Jahmyr Gibbs Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

You don’t spend the 12th overall pick on a running back with a second-round grade in this era of football and not use him. I think the Lions will be looking to prove the haters on draft night wrong by maximizing Gibbs’ usage and it starts tonight. He’s an elite pass-catcher and should be utilized heavily in the passing game, especially early in the season until Jameson Williams comes back from suspension.

Gibbs has a great matchup to start his NFL career, as the Chiefs were awful against pass-catching running backs last year. Kansas City ranked dead last in running back receiving production, allowing 6.6 receptions and 47.2 receiving yards per game. The absence of Chris Jones has a ripple effect throughout this defense, and I think Gibbs exploits it in a big way.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) David Montgomery Anytime TD (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

While I love Gibbs to be a star running back for the Lions, he’s unfortunately going to be more of the guy who gets them close to the end zone rather than into it. That job will fall to Montgomery who takes over the Jamaal Williams role from last season that produced 17 touchdowns. Montgomery’s power running style behind the elite Lions offensive line should see him punch one in tonight if they get near the goal line.

MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Atlanta Braves Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on MLB Network

Oh yeah, baseball is still going on, because the season is interminable. I’ll probably tune in to the first couple innings here before switching to football, and I expect to see plenty of offense right away. This has to be a revenge spot for Atlanta after two straight embarrassing nights against the Cardinals, and they tend to erupt in those situations.

There aren’t many better pitchers to erupt against than Adam Wainwright, who Braves hitters are batting a cumulative .325 against. And the Cardinals seem to be finally living up to their offensive potential a little bit, with consecutive games of double-digit runs and jumping all over a leading Cy Young candidate last night. The wind is blowing out at Truist Park tonight and these teams are hitting well, so expect plenty of runs.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Javier Assad Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on MLB Network

Javier Assad has been a revelation for the red-hot Cubs since taking over a spot in the starting rotation. Assad has made 6 starts for Chicago since early August, posting a 1.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those games. The Cubs are progressively giving him a longer leash too, and he’s gone over this outs prop in the past 5 straight starts. Arizona turns into a completely average hitting team on the road, ranking in the mid-teens for just about every basic and advanced metric out there. I don’t think they’ll challenge Assad too much, and he can easily pitch into the 6th inning tonight.

Degenerates

FIBA World Cup Germany Team Total Under 84.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:30 AM CT Friday on ESPN2

So I can go to bed after the NFL opening game and wake up to the US playing in the World Cup? Meaningful sports are so back! I’m excited to see how the US team continues to play after their ugly loss to Lithuania, but that seems to have woken them up. Their defense has been excellent, allowing just 76.8 PPG all tournament and 70.2 in the games other than the Lithuania debacle. Steve Kerr can coach defense just as well as offense, and I think the US team keeps their focus on that end of the floor for tomorrow’s semi-final.

Tiny Nick is 1482-1322 ATS (+71.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.