Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/05

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ LA Angels (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network

The run line for Baltimore last night was in doubt a little bit until a late rally, but that’s what this team does. The Orioles get hits in bunches, especially against bad bullpens like the one LA has, and that helps them pile up the runs needed to cash run line wins. They’ve now moved to 17-6 on the run line as a road favorite, and this plus-money price has me jumping in again.

It can be tough to know what you’ll get from Reid Detmers in any given start, as there’s one excellent outing mixed in with his 7.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP from last month. But I’d certainly rather go against him as the Angels have a minus-37 run differential in his starts this season. The very consistent pitcher in this matchup is Orioles starter Dean Kremer, who had an excellent August and his past 10 starts have seen Baltimore go 9-1 with 7 multi-run wins. Add in the massive bullpen difference with these teams and I like the O’s to run away with another one tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland A’s Over 8 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Toronto games have been getting a little wild lately, and I think that trend can help get this game over such a low total. Oakland Coliseum can be tough to score in given the field size and Bay Area weather, but the Jays keep getting into high-scoring games, going 13-6-1 over this number their past 20 while averaging 10.3 runs per game. And Oakland’s past 6 series at home have seen the games go 9-5-1 over this total.

Toronto might need to keep scoring with Chris Bassitt on the mound, as he has a 5.02 ERA on the road that’s nearly double what it is at home. They should be able to against A’s starter Ken Waldichuk, as the Jays are much better against lefties this season. The Oakland bullpen is still a disaster and Toronto’s doesn’t inspire much confidence either, so I see a path to clearing this very low number.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

I expected to see this total set at 10 given the pitching matchup here, so I really like this number. When you have Kyle Freeland pitching you have to expect runs, as his past 7 starts are 6-0-1 over this total with 11.6 runs on average. And while I had gotten a little worried that Brandon Pfaadt might have figured some things out, the usual version of him blew up in his last start. Being back home where he has a 7.30 ERA and .320 opponent batting average should allow Colorado to contribute here. I wouldn’t dare back either of these pitchers on the side, so I’ll count on their typical selves allowing plenty of runs tonight.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Sky/Indiana Fever Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

The three meetings between these teams have been remarkably consistent in how close and high-scoring they were. Two of the games were decided by 2-point margins, the other went to overtime, and those tight games late helped pad scoring. All three meetings easily cashed the over as well, averaging 180.0 points.

I think we see a similarly high-scoring game tonight, especially with Indiana eliminated from the playoffs and having nothing to play for. They already had the worst defense in the league, and now I expect their games to look like pick-up games. Chicago isn’t great defensively either, so I think this game justifies all the over money that’s been coming in.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty/Dallas Wings Over 171.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

All I needed to see for getting involved in the over here was that Sabrina Ionescu is probable to play after a calf injury kept her out two games. Even without arguably the league’s best shooter, the Liberty didn’t miss a beat offensively, dropping 89 and 86 points in her absence. I expect them to build on that in her return, as they were averaging 96.3 PPG in the four games before she sat out.

Dropping big numbers on Dallas is certainly not challenging as the Wings have the third-worst scoring defense in the league. Their fast pace and excellent offense are always creating high-scoring affairs, especially with Satou Sabally back from her own injury issues. That’s been the case in both meetings between these teams this year, as they’ve combined for 195 and 186 points. With all the elite scorers healthy for this game, we should see another tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1479-1320 ATS (+70.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.