Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/04

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Clemson/Duke First Half Under 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

I have to jump on this number since it’s on the right side of the key number of 28, and would project to a higher total than what the full game sits at. I also think we see a much more defensive-oriented game here given the strength on that side of the ball for both teams. Duke is now in the second year of head coach Mike Elko’s system, and he’s always been a defensive-minded coach. The Blue Devils return 8 starters to a defense that only allowed 22.8 PPG last year, and finished 14th in opponent yards per point.

And even with Brent Venables gone to Oklahoma, the defensive talent at Clemson has not fallen off one bit. The Tigers have arguably the best front seven in the country, and should be able to slow down a Duke team that likes to keep it on the ground. The Tigers are also unveiling a brand new offensive system under Garrett Riley, and while starting QB Cade Klubnik is talented he’s also relatively inexperienced. It might take some time to get going offensively on the road here against a legit defense, so I see a slow start to this one tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 9.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on MLB Network

Don’t read too much into the Yankees sweeping Houston over the weekend. Aaron Boone finally did something smart and kept right-handed pitchers on the mound against the Astros, exploiting their biggest weakness. The Rangers don’t have that luxury today as Andrew Heaney hits his day in the rotation. That will give arguably the best offense against lefties a chance to redeem themselves today, and I think they take advantage.

Heaney has 3 starts against Houston this season, but none when the lineup was healthy. Those starts averaged 12 runs, and the season series has averaged 11.8 runs. Meanwhile, Astros starter JP France and his struggles in August should bleed into this month against the elite Rangers lineup. Texas has the highest plus/minus to the over this season for good reason, and this should get over the number again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland A’s +1.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 3:07 PM CT on NBCS-CA

A weekend sweep of the Angels isn’t incredibly impressive with that team cratering, but when the A’s sweep anyone it has to draw some attention. They’re playing really decent baseball lately, going 8-5 straight up across their past 4 series. It’ll be tougher against a much better Toronto team, but I see plenty of vulnerabilities for the Blue Jays today.

First and foremost is the struggles returning for starter Jose Berrios, who had a 5.53 ERA last month. The Jays are also just 2-6 in his past 8 starts, and he’s on the road where fading him tends to pay off historically. Toronto has also been very inconsistent lately, and are dealing with a lot of injuries in the starting lineup. Coming from the Denver elevation after a delayed game yesterday is a tough spot, this is the time of year when upsets run wild in MLB, and I’ll take the 1.5 runs with an ugly but live dog here.

MLB (1.2 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 5:35 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee bats were red hot all August, averaging 5.3 runs per game for the month. They’ve also been hot against Pittsburgh pitching this year, averaging 6.1 runs across the season series. To top it off, they’ll face another struggling righty today which has been their specialty for putting big numbers on the board.

Luis Ortiz has looked rough this season, especially at home where he has a 5.20 ERA and .321 opponent batting average. The Brewers have plenty of lefty bats to plug into the lineup, and Ortiz is allowing a .369 average and 1.066 OPS in that split. Milwaukee has scored 24 runs in their 3 games at PNC Park this year, and I expect them to keep slugging today.

Bonus Bet (0.6 Unit) Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120; Odds via DraftKings)

I mentioned Ortiz’s struggles against left-handed bats above, so the best lefty for Milwaukee should be in for a good day at the plate. Yelich has faced Ortiz three times in his life, walking once and hitting two doubles. He has also crushed Pirates pitching this year for a .333 average and 1.009 OPS, so a couple more hits or one extra-base hit should be coming today.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies ML @ San Diego Padres (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on SDPA

The line here to back the Phillies is as surprisingly short as I am in un-lifted shoes, which is saying something. Unreasonably boosted applies both to my shoe collection and the prices on San Diego all year long as this Padres team continues to disappoint. The Padres taking 3 of 4 against a faltering and banged-up Giants squad over the weekend should not be considered improvement if you dig into the pitching matchups from that series.

They have a much tougher matchup on the mound here, and I think it gives the advantage to Philly. I’m not sure the Padres are terribly pleased with their Rich Hill acquisition as they’ve lost all 5 of his starts. With the Phillies absolutely crushing lefties lately, Hill’s 8.50 ERA from August should carry into today. And the Padres are just hilariously bad against right-handed pitching, so Taijuan Walker has a chance to hold them down like he did in his other start against San Diego this year. I just can’t believe the pricing we continue to see on the Padres, and I’ll back Philly here with the advantages they have.

MLB (1 Unit) Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ LA Angels (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on FS1

If you want a safe run line bet, look no further than the Orioles on the road. This team is 49-19 on the run line away from Camden Yard, leading the league by a wide margin. They’re also an incredible 16-6 to the run line when they’re a favorite on the road, so getting this price is impossible to pass up.

It’s simple: the Angels are cratering as a team and organization, looking like they have little interest in playing out the string. They’ll start a September call-up today in Kenny Rosenberg, who’s so bad he stayed in the minors while LA spent the whole summer devoid of pitching talent.

The Orioles should get another quality start out of Grayson Rodriguez who definitely fixed something in the minors this summer, as he has just a 2.83 ERA and 0.99 WHIP since being brought back up. The Angels are also in a Malinsky Special here after 9 road games on both coasts, and should get stomped again by this excellent Orioles squad.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1474-1318 ATS (+69.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.