Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/02

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) East Carolina @ Michigan -36 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on Peacock

This line actually came down on the news of Jim Harbaugh’s suspension, but I don’t think that matters one bit. It might actually help, with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter coaching for this game and looking to leave an impression for when he inevitably interviews for head coaching jobs. You know the defense will be doing everything right with him in charge, and they should suffocate this East Carolina team.

The Pirates lost just about all the talent you can possibly lose from a program after last season. They’ll have 4 new offensive line starters, and that group will try to protect a QB with no collegiate starts against the elite Wolverine pass rush. This game is bound to get ugly, and even if the offense isn’t the focus for Michigan, eventually talent simply wins out. Laying a massive number with Michigan against a cupcake is not a bad idea considering they opened last season with 44, 46, and 59-point wins. Today should be more of the same no matter who is running the Michigan sideline.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arkansas St @ Oklahoma -35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN

The spread in this game crossed through the key number of 35 as it rose from the June opener and never dipped back below. That’s a signal that smart money expects a blowout and I would tend to agree. It’s another game where talent will simply overwhelm an outmatched opponent no matter how the Sooners approach this game.

Oklahoma should get whatever it wants on offense against one of last season’s absolute worst defenses, and Arkansas State did very little to improve for this year. Dillon Gabriel and his massive offensive line should roll right through the Red Wolves all afternoon, probably adding more points accidentally after they try to run out the clock. And I think we start to see a defense much more in the dominant Brent Venables style after last season had some growing pains. Venables needs blowouts to keep the Sooner fans happy, and I think they deliver here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Louisiana Tech/SMU Over 66 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU

This game simply has track meet written all over it, and I was surprised to see this total not at 70 or higher. A lot probably has to do with Louisiana Tech looking sluggish at times offensively last week in a weird game against FIU. But they were great once Hank Bachmeier got into a groove, and should have lead running back Marquis Crosby back for this game.

The Bulldogs better hope they can keep pace with the SMU offense that is one the most up-tempo and explosive in the country. And now they’ll be led by dual-threat QB Preston Stone who adds another element of explosiveness. Coach Rhett Lashlee never takes his foot off the gas, and the Mustangs will probably want to put on a show with the news of them potentially heading to the ACC. That should all add up to a busy day for the scoreboard operator.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ohio State/Indiana Over 59 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS

Ohio State just cannot be stopped when they play Indiana, and Ryan Day absolutely owns Tom Allen from an offensive standpoint. The Buckeyes have won every meeting since a tie back in 1990, and the past 6 years have seen scores of 49-21, 49-26, 51-10, 42-35, 54-7, and 56-14 last season.

For those keeping track at home, Ohio State is averaging 50.2 PPG and these games are 6-0 over this number in that span. Indiana had the worst defense in the conference last season, the Buckeyes are looking to make a statement on national TV with new QB Kyle McCord, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see OSU hit this over on their own.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Boise State/Washington Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

I’m just plain excited for this game that will see two electric talents at the quarterback position face off. Washington QB Michael Penix is squarely in the Heisman discussion, and a game like this on national TV is the perfect opportunity for him to go wild and make a statement. That’s the game plan in general for the Huskies since they throw as much as any team in the country, and have to rely on the passing game even more with their starting running back out for the year.

I think this total is being held down somewhat by the expectation of Boise State’s defense picking up where it left off last season. But they faced just one opponent with a great offense last year, and have never seen anything like the passing attack Washington unleashes. They do have their own elite QB talent in Taylen Green though, a special dual-threat player who can carve up a Washington defense that allowed 25.8 PPG last year. Washington games averaged 65.5 points last season and they have a ton of continuity on offense, so shootouts will be the norm for them starting today.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Buffalo/Wisconsin Over 54 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

I expect Wisconsin to roll here, so let’s make it official and add another half unit on them to cover the 27.5-point spread. After all, the Badgers blew out their Group of 5 opponents last season 38-0 and 66-7, but this is not the Badgers of last year or any year in recent memory. Gone is the ground-and-pound style of vanilla offense with Luke Fickell taking over, as he brought in former UNC offensive coordinator Phil Longo to call plays.

When Longo was at UNC they ran one of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and I expect at least some of that to be at play here. Wisconsin finally has a quarterback to execute a modern spread offense with Tanner Mordecai transferring in from SMU. He and elite running back Braelon Allen should shred a Buffalo defense that was average against MAC competition last year and are undersized here. The Badgers are also without longtime defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard now, so if the defense takes any steps back we should see them in plenty of high-scoring games.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) South Florida @ Western Kentucky -11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN

This is going to be an absolute stomping and I can’t believe this spread. Western Kentucky’s offense can’t be stopped by strong defenses, much less a South Florida team that finished last season in the 120’s for most defensive metrics (friendly reminder that there are 133 FBS teams). The Hilltoppers bring back the nation’s leading passer in Austin Reed, his un-coverable top target Malachi Corley, and have several incoming wide receiver transfers from top offensive programs. Meanwhile the cupboard is completely bare for USF on offense with an inaccurate quarterback in Gerry Bohanon, a terrible line, and no explosive skill players. This line makes no sense to me and I smell a complete blowout.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UMass/Auburn Over 51.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Hugh Freeze era starts at Auburn here, and I think he needs to start off with a bang. That means keeping the pedal down all game and putting a massive number on the scoreboard to make Tigers fans forget about the awfulness of last year. I don’t see any reason they can’t do it against a UMass team that still stinks on defense, and will have to face SEC-level talent after New Mexico State put up 30 points on them.

Word out of Auburn is that their running backs are absolutely elite, so even trying to run out the clock should result in more scores. But until the Tigers prove their defense isn’t the train wreck it was last year, I’ll expect points from all their opponents. The Minutemen showed that QB Taisun Phommachanh is still a great dual-threat, and their transfer portal additions on offense are paying off. Whether it’s all game or in garbage time, UMass should contribute here in a game where Auburn might hit the over on their own.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) California @ North Texas +6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Just because California hails from the crumbling Pac12 doesn’t mean we should consider them the superior Power 5 team here. This program is on the decline under Justin Wilcox, even on defense which used to be his specialty. The Golden Bears defense finished 125th in Havoc last season, and dead last in standard downs success rate. That’s a pretty bad sign, especially for a team trying to completely overhaul their offensive scheme and personnel this year so that won’t compensate for the defensive issues.

North Texas meanwhile has system continuity with the Air Raid and an up-tempo approach. The defense certainly leaves something to be desired, but I’m much more comfortable with the home team and their better offense here. It’s also set to be in the upper 90’s at kickoff in Denton, very unfavorable conditions for a team from the Bay Area. Add in that Wilcox is 2-8-1 ATS as a nonconference favorite, and I’ll take the points with the home dog here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UTSA -2 @ Houston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

Longtime Houston quarterback Clayton Tune is an Arizona Cardinal now, creating a new era for the Cougars that I don’t see starting well. In stark contrast is UTSA and QB Frank Harris, who has been in school longer than Van Wilder and gives the Roadrunners an excellent chance to continue their upward trajectory as a program. His dual-threat ability should challenge a Houston defense that could not get anything right last year. This game opened in June with UTSA a short dog, but they’re now moving towards a field goal favorite on the road against a Big12 school. Smart money knows what the side is here, and it’s the Roadrunners.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) North Carolina/South Carolina Over 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

This might be the game I’m most excited for all day, because who doesn’t love a fireworks show? The battle of the Carolinas should not disappoint from an offensive standpoint, with both teams having exciting quarterbacks ready to sling it tonight. Drake Maye might very well be the biggest competition Caleb Williams has for the top pick in the NFL draft, and he should show it tonight against a South Carolina defense that allowed 33.1 PPG to Power 5 opponents last year.

That Gamecocks defense only returned 4 starters from last season, and should be in trouble again here. But the offense is certainly capable of picking them up, as Spencer Rattler and top target Antwane Wells are back for a boom-or-bust unit. The UNC defense is just as shaky if not worse, allowing 30.8 PPG last season and causing some epic shootouts. This should be one of those as two exciting QB’s lead a ton of skill position talent in a high-profile game.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Toledo +9.5 @ Illinois (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on BTN

This is a fairly sizable underdog in a game with a very low total set at just 46 points. That’s an important indicator to watch for, and I think a lower-scoring game ensues that favors catching all those points. The main reason is Illinois has lost a ton of production offensively, namely running back Chase Brown who is now a Cincinnati Bengal.

The Illini relied almost too heavily on Brown last year, plus a defense that also had several players drafted. Toledo is sneaky-good behind QB Dequan Finn, who should have success against the lesser version of Illinois’ secondary. With so many question marks around the Illini’s identity and a likely slugfest ensuing, I’m glad to be holding all these points in my back pocket.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Alabama +6.5 @ Tulane (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPNU

On my podcast we sound the trap alarm when a line smells suspicious, and this one has those wavy cartoon stink lines coming off it. A ranked Tulane team, who is remembered last for knocking off USC in the Cotton Bowl, at home against a no-name program but laying less than a touchdown? Books are begging for a wave of green money to come in on the Green Wave, but it isn’t happening.

The biggest reason is that South Alabama is, in fact, not a no-name program to those who follow college football closely. The Jaguars lost by a point at UCLA last year, and were 5 total points away from an undefeated regular season. Tulane is not going to be anywhere near the team they were after losing Tyjae Spears to the NFL, and are getting this top-25 ranking more as a hat-tip to their Cotton Bowl win. South Alabama has one of the highest rates of returning production in the country, plus their coach and coordinators back, and should have Tulane on upset alert tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Football West Virginia Team Total Under 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC

I’m excited to see Penn State’s highly-touted quarterback Drew Allar tonight, but that won’t be the true strength of this team. The Nittany Lions should have one of the absolute best defenses in the country if not the best, and they should stifle West Virginia tonight. The Mountaineers will do a lot of the stifling themselves, as I’ll be shocked every time they throw the ball. Trying to run into the front that Penn State has on defense is plain foolish, and will result in a very low output by the visitor in Happy Valley tonight.

Tiny Nick is 1466-1311 ATS (+68.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.