Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/01

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Stanford/Hawaii Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I’m so glad Hawaii appears to be back as a respectable offense, it makes bail-out games late at night much more predictable. I think we see plenty of points in this game that should be determined by tempo, and is sitting just below the 8-touchdown key number of 56 points. I’m also glad to see David Shaw gone from Stanford and ushering in a new era of modern football, which should come with new coach Troy Taylor.

The former coach at Sacramento State loves to play up-tempo, putting in a pace last year that would’ve been top-15 in all of FBS. It’s a style of offense similar to high-octane teams like TCU and Tennessee, which should dice the Hawaii defense that’s still in rough shape. Hawaii is also in a tough travel spot coming back from Nashville on a short week, with the Maui fires also weighing on their minds. But the Rainbow Warriors were impressive on offense last week, letting Brayden Schager sling it. With Hawaii also a very up-tempo team, we should see both teams fly up and down the field and pile up the points.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s another start by Zach Davies from Arizona here, and I have to expect runs with two solid offenses facing off. Davies had a great start last time out in his return from the injured list, but I don’t see it lasting since he’s been a gas can all season.

That game still flew over the total though thanks to poor relief pitching from the Diamondbacks, which is also a big factor here. I think Baltimore can take advantage since they spent the early part of the week hammering bad White Sox pitching, and averaged 5.5 runs per game in August. But they also have an untrustworthy pitcher starting today in Cole Irvin, who puts Arizona in their preferred split as a righty.

The Snakes have averaged 4.8 runs per game since breaking out of their second-half slump, and will be glad to return home where they’re much better offensively after a tough series in LA. They should get to Irvin enough before the Orioles turn to their elite relievers, while Baltimore jumps on Davies enough to push this over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1465-1310 ATS (+68.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.