Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/7

Locks

MLB - (1 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Over 10.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

It’s been easy to exploit the awfulness of the Pittsburgh Pirates lately, but today I’m expecting them to contribute offensively while still sending bad pitching to the mound.

Pirates starter Mitch Keller should get touched up as a right-hander by this Cincinnati Reds offense that’s now averaging 8.5 runs per game against Pittsburgh this season. In his only action against Cincinnati, Keller was the starter in a 14-1 demolition by the Reds where he didn’t get out of the 4th inning before allowing 7 runs.

All of that certainly puts the Reds team total of 6 in play, and I wouldn’t argue against betting it, but I think the game over is a better bet due to Vladimir Gutierrez starting for the Reds. At first glance, Gutierrez looks like a dominant pitcher and he has been on the road, but he owns a 7.17 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a .310 on-base average at home.

The hitter's park gives him a lot of trouble and I expect even the Pirates offense to further his struggles, as they have slightly better power numbers against righties like Gutierrez. Weather conditions are ideal in Cincy, the Reds are tearing the cover off the ball, and these pitchers are gas cans in this small park so I’m on the over here.

MLB - (0.75 Unit) San Francisco Giants/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

This series has the vibe of an NLDS, and it could very well be a playoff preview, which showed last night in a pitcher’s duel that went to extras. I think we’re in for another pitcher’s duel here as both the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers send out excellent starters tonight.

Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers was in the early Cy Young conversation, and while that’s fallen off he’s still top-5 in baseball for ERA and xFIP, plus his starts this year are 14-7 under this number. And the Brewers have been playing a lot of low-scoring home games lately, 11-2 under this number in their past 5 series in Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, the Giants send Aaron Sanchez to the mound. He's been brought back slowly from injury, but as a right-hander should frustrate the Milwaukee bats, who are 26th in MLB for batting average against righties. There’s fairly cool weather with high humidity and a breeze blowing into this pitcher’s park tonight, so with good pitchers and a playoff atmosphere, I’m seeing another under between these teams.

MLB - (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres Over 8 (-110):  7:40 PM CT on FS1

I don’t understand this total one bit given the starting pitchers in this game and a trend that might not be getting enough attention.

Typically when Yu Darvish starts for the San Diego Padres you can expect a low-scoring game, but I’m not sure the old Yu works here anymore. The new Yu owns a 7.36 ERA over his past 5 starts, and both of his starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks have gone over this total.

The Snakes send another bad pitcher to the mound tonight in Taylor Widener, who has been lit up by some questionable offenses in his last 3 starts, posting a 10.66 ERA and 2.19 WHIP in the process. Overall the series between these teams has trended over, and the last 5 have flown over while averaging 12.8 runs per game.

Arizona also shocked the Padres last night for only their 35th win on the season so they don’t win often, but when they do their next games go over at 70.6% for the best rate in baseball. The last 10 games for both these teams combined have gone 15-3-2 over this number, so they’re both playing high-scoring games lately and I see another tonight with these pitchers and hot offenses.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 350-245 ATS (+90.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.