Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/5

Locks

MLB 2-Team Parlay (+150)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-240)  6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

This moneyline is far too big to lay on its own, but I do trust the Cincinnati Reds to get the win so this is a reasonable way to utilize the heavy juice. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been valuable to fade on the run line recently, but all that’s needed here is for them to drop their 68th game of the year against a Reds team that has crushed them this season. Cincinnati is 5-1 against the Pirates this season with a massive plus-34 run differential built up already. The Reds also have plenty of motivation here as they need wins against bad teams to stay in the playoff picture. Their excellent offense gets to tee off on a right-handed pitcher again tonight, and that should carry them to a win against the light-hitting Pirates.

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros -1.5 (-135): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Houston Astros are returning home after a frustrating road trip against the NL contenders and looking for someone to take it out on. Enter the Minnesota Twins and rookie starter Griffin Jax. He’s sure to struggle against the Astros who are near the top of MLB in hitting and power numbers against right-handed pitching. The Astros are also excellent with Framber Valdez on the mound, 9-3 overall with 7 of those wins by two-plus runs. The lefty has already turned in a dominant performance against the Twins this season in a 14-3 Astros rout. And if you’re looking for a team to fade on the run line look no further than Minnesota, as they have the worst run line cover record and worst plus/minus to the run line in baseball. The juice on this is outside my comfort range, but tied into this parlay for a nice plus-juice return makes it worthwhile to lay in expectation of an easy Astros win.

Degenerates

NFL Pittsburgh Steelers/Dallas Cowboys Under 33 (-110):  7:00 PM CT on FOX

TGIF(ootball). For those of us who have been watching the calendar obsessively waiting for a real betting sport to return, today is a ray of hope. If you’re dead set on having some football action tonight, the under is the only way I’d play this game. The past eight Hall of Fame Games have gone 5-2-1 under this number, averaging 26.1 points per game in the process. This total also offers a good opportunity to start re-adjusting your betting brain to key numbers for football, as this is straddling the two key total numbers of 31 and 35, but has the key numbers of 31, 28, and 27 below it to give value to the under. And tonight is looking like the time to shine for backups and offensive futility as the star quarterbacks for both teams, Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger, will not play. It takes a true degenerate to bet on the first game of the NFL Preseason, but if you can’t contain the excitement of football being back then I’d recommend the under here.

Tiny Nick is 345-244 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.