Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/4

Locks

MLB - Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-110) @ Texas Rangers: 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The hapless Texas Rangers should continue their futility tonight in this massive pitching mismatch. I pointed out last week how all the Rangers do when Kolby Allard gets the start for them is lose, and they proceeded to drop another game to fall to 1-10 in his starts with 9 of those by two-plus runs.

It’s another tough matchup for them against the Los Angeles Angels and presumptive AL MVP Shohei Ohtani who takes the mound for this one. Ohtani has been incredibly dominant against right-handed bats, which represent the vast majority of the Rangers lineup, allowing just a .146 average and .486 OPS. And in his other two starts against Texas this season he’s led them to run line covers both times.

The Angels broke out of a hitting slump last night against a different bad Rangers pitcher, which should carry over to tonight. They hit lefties well and Allard has been batting practice with a 9.13 ERA in his last 5 outings. I’d prefer if this was better than standard juice, but that’s asking a lot when fading a Rangers squad who has seen 18 of their past 20 losses come by two-plus runs, so I’ll take it.

MLB - San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ

A somewhat brand name pitching matchup for this game is holding the total down, but those pitchers have been struggling lately and makes this over the play for me.

San Francisco Giants starter Kevin Gausman was getting Cy Young buzz around the All-Star break, but his last three starts have likely ended that dream as he’s posted an 8.49 ERA and 2.23 WHIP in those games. Even an ugly Arizona Diamondbacks lineup should be able to produce against numbers like that, and they’re sending their own troubled starter to the mound.

Zac Gallen has pitched like an ace in the past but not often this season. Gallen has posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since returning from injury in June, including two starts against San Francisco that flew over this total. The Giants lineup has a career .334 average and 1.099 OPS against him. There have been a lot of high-scoring games between these teams, leading to an average of 11.5 runs per game when they get together this season, and overs in Arizona have been a good bet at 62.3% this year. With these struggling starters facing off, I’m seeing another high-scoring game in the desert.

Bonus Bet: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-110);

Given the strength of the Giants lineup against Gallen and the lopsided results between these teams this season, I’m also looking for an easy Giants win in this game.

San Fran owns a plus-36 run differential against the D’Backs this year, and 7 of their 10 wins over Arizona have come by two-plus runs. In Gallen’s two starts against the Giants this season Arizona has been outscored 21-7 for two run line losses, and Gausman’s two starts in the series have seen the Giants go 2-0 by a combined score of 18-3.

And Arizona loves losing by wide margins in general, with 15 of their past 20 losses by two-plus runs. So if the Giants are going to win this game they should do it comfortably, and I’d much rather have this standard juice than lay the inflated moneyline.

MLB - Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I’m shocked the St. Louis Cardinals were willing to pay more than a container of spider tack to acquire J.A. Happ. Having his first start in the NL come against the powerful Atlanta Braves lineup might be a rude awakening.

Happ has been getting crushed by everyone this season, and the Braves have excellent hitters from both sides of the plate to take advantage of him, allowing an average of over .300 to both righties and lefties. His July numbers of a 9.22 ERA and 1.94 WHIP are astronomical, and the opposing team has gone over this total in 12 of his past 15 starts.

The Braves are also 10-5 over this total since the All-Star break, and have significantly increased their average, slugging percentage, and OPS in the second half so far. I seriously doubt Happ’s struggles this season can be fixed with a change of scenery, so I’ll count on him to continue giving up runs in bunches with this relatively low total.

Degenerates

MLB - Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings +0.5 (+145) @ New York Yankees: 6:05 PM CT on YES

Again, to all who celebrate, Happy Matt Harvey D…..wait, what?

Yeah, I’m actually serious about this, The Dark Knight rises for the Baltimore Orioles recently as Harvey is on an 18-inning scoreless streak in three straight winning starts. It admittedly won’t be easy continuing that against the powerful New York Yankees lineup that’s been assembled since the trade deadline.

But we’ve seen plenty of power outages from the Yankees this season, particularly against right-handed pitchers, which they’re still only batting .224 with a .687 OPS against. Harvey also held New York down in his only start against them this season allowing just one run in six innings, plus the revamped Pinstripe lineup is batting a collective .153 career average against him.

Yankees starter Jameson Taillon has been strong over the last month with a 1.16 ERA, making me think we’re in for a pitcher’s duel early in this one. A tie game or Orioles lead after 5 innings is all we need here, and what I see as a low-scoring start should help it get there for a great plus-juice return.

Tiny Nick is 342-242 ATS (+85 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.