Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/31

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

Nebraska/Minnesota Under 50: 7:00 PM CT on FOX

The under in this game has been getting a ton of action, and I’m looking to move it back up above where it even opened at 47.5 in June. I think we see a grind of a game here with question marks around both offenses, especially at quarterback. Nebraska brought in Jeff Sims who is probably the most athletic QB in the conference, but his passing ability is very limited and that will take the pressure off an inexperienced Minnesota secondary.

And for the Gophers, the first full year of Athan Kaliakmanis should feature plenty of running as well. The Gophers have a stable of running backs and a big offensive line, plus PJ Fleck loves to take the air out of the football, especially late in the game. The Matt Rhule era at Nebraska should start slowly just like at his other programs, so we might be in for some ugly and bland football tonight.

NC State @ UConn +21.5: 6:30 PM CT on CBSSN

UConn football has a long way to go to catch the basketball program, but they’re on the rise nonetheless in the second year under Jim Mora. The Huskies showed a lot of progress late last season to gain bowl eligibility, especially on offense. They’ll need it here against an NC State team that’s expected to be better offensively with transfer QB Brennan Armstrong reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae.

But the tendency of the Wolfpack for several years has been strong defense and lower-scoring games, making such a large number of points pretty valuable. This is also a revenge game for the Huskies, who lost last year in Raleigh by 31 in the game right before their strong finish to the season. Most pro bettors had set this line around 17 points, UConn has been taking a lot of money here, and I’m happy to tease through all that steam to the right side of a big key number.

Florida/Utah Under 52.5: 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

A lot has been made about Utah being without starting quarterback Cam Rising and elite tight end Brant Kuithe, and I think their absences really turn this game into a grind. The Utes will actually start their third-string quarterback in Bryson Barnes tonight, a former walk-on. The leading rusher and receiver from last year are also gone now, so the Utah offense will look a lot different than anyone remembers and from what it’s supposed to be.

But the defense is still one of the best in the country, and they’ll lean on it tonight. There aren’t many teams with better defensive fronts than Utah has, and I think they get a lot of pressure on new Florida QB Graham Mertz. The transfer was last seen being pretty awful at Wisconsin, and his lack of mobility makes the transition from Anthony Richardson extremely stark. Richardson had a massive game in this matchup last season, Utah had all their offensive weapons available, and only 55 points were scored. I think this falls well short of the semi-key number I’m teasing it to here.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Kent State/UCF Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

There needs to be some consideration given to the weather in this one as a hurricane is obviously in the area. But short of very heavy rain, I think we can see some points put up in this game for a few reasons. First is that UCF is so vastly superior to Kent State in every way that the Knights might hit this total on their own. They did it twice last year in home games against terrible opponents, and Kent State is arguably the worst team in FBS after getting gutted by the transfer portal.

Second is that UCF is now in the Big12, a league where you’d better put up plenty of points to keep pace, and the strong teams absolutely roll in these games against cupcake opponents. Coach Gus Malzahn is no stranger to that philosophy, and I think they make a statement as they enter a new conference. And adverse weather might not make that much difference for UCF’s offense, as they’re so elite at running the football. It’s tough to gauge what this mystery of a Golden Flashes team will contribute here, but I think it’s enough to get over a total on the right side of a key number.

Tiny Nick is 1465-1310 ATS (+67.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.