Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/29

Locks

MLB Oakland A’s @ Seattle Mariners Prop Bets: 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

It’s that time in the baseball season where three-dollar favorites become fairly commonplace, and makes betting on the Mariners here pretty difficult. But with how hot this team is and how dreadful Oakland is, it would be irresponsible to not find some angle to exploit. I think both of these props are solid options given the matchups and situation.

(0.5 Unit) Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

I’d say we’re watching a superstar blossom right now, and J-Rod should be in for another productive night at the plate. What an insane month he’s having, batting .429 with a 1.197 OPS and going over this total in 14 of 23 August games.

Rodriguez hits lefties at .317 this year and he’ll see one tonight in Oakland starter Ken Waldichuk, who looks like the next victim of Seattle’s red-hot offense. With a .400 average and 1.088 OPS against the A’s this year, look for J-Rod to record a couple more hits or at least one extra-base knock.

(0.5 Unit) George Kirby Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

The list of things Oakland is the worst at in all of MLB against right-handed pitching includes batting average, runs scored, OPS, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average. They’re right near the bottom for everything else you can think of too, so George Kirby should have a fairly easy time tonight.

The Mariner righty has had plenty of long outings mixed with shorter ones, but he’s in a position here where he can dominate this pathetic A’s squad. Kirby pitched 9 innings in his last home start where he has much better numbers this year, and he averages 18.8 outs per start. I’ll take a shot at plus-money here that he has a lengthy outing against such an anemic offense.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Under 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I think this should be a lower-scoring game in general due to recent issues for both teams, but Phoenix is the one I’m targeting specifically. That’s due to the Mercury continuing to be awful in road games, averaging 73.7 PPG this season with an 11-5 record under this team total. Their performances overall and particularly on the road have gotten progressively worse, especially as injuries have mounted for key players.

Diana Taurasi looks like she is still out for the Mercury, and now Sophie Cunningham is hurt as well after being the main option while Taurasi has been out. The meetings with the Dream this year are a microcosm of their home/road splits, scoring 91 at home but just 65 in Atlanta. With just 68.6 PPG their past 5 overall, injuries galore, and being officially eliminated from the postseason, I expect the Mercury to be cold again in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1465-1309 ATS (+67.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.