Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/28

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Connecticut @ Fresno State -16.5 First Half (-110): 1:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network

Here’s the good news for Connecticut: the Huskies are returning a whole lot of starters. The problem is the last time we saw those starters playing football was November of 2019, the end of a season where they ranked near the bottom of FBS in most categories. Another problem for them is what they’re facing in this game, as Fresno State also returns a ton of talent including every offensive skill position.

Coach Kalen DeBoer really knows offense, so veteran running back Ronnie Rivers and three explosive receivers should torch a UConn defense that was allowing 40.5 PPG against mediocre competition in 2019. The Bulldogs also have an extremely aggressive defense that was one of the best nationally at creating negative plays in 2020, and they should dominate a patchwork UConn offensive line.

The full game side makes me a little nervous though, as Fresno has a much more important game next week at Oregon. I’m far more comfortable with this first-half number as I see Fresno jumping on UConn early and then coasting into next week.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Nebraska/Illinois Under 54.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Some of the sharpest money I’ve seen coming in on this miniature college slate has hit the under in this game. That’s driven the total down a point from the open of 55.5, a definite indication of what books and sharp bettors think is going to happen with the key number of 56 not getting tested.

I can definitely see this being a lower-scoring affair. Illinois brought in ground-and-pound head coach Bret Bielema who loves to run the ball. The Illini are equipped with a massive offensive line, two very good running backs and an inconsistent QB, the perfect recipe for Bielema to run the ball and drain the clock.

The Nebraska defense should be very good against the run with nine starters returning, and their weak pass rush won’t get too exposed by an Illinois team afraid to throw. The Huskers are also very inexperienced at the skill positions, so QB Adrian Martinez will probably be asked to use his legs a lot, along with USC transfer running back Markese Stepp.

This one should see a run-heavy game plan from both sides up against stout run defenses. A lack of explosive plays and a constantly running clock will likely keep it under the total.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Hawaii +17.5 (-110) @ UCLA: 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

This season is really now or never for Chip Kelly and UCLA, but I’ll believe it once I see it. This game is also a classic look-ahead spot for the Bruins, who welcome #16 LSU to town next week for a huge game.

Once the line movement in this game got through the key number of 17 I was buying on Hawaii. This is a team equipped with dynamic athletes on offense that can make all kinds of plays for coach Todd Graham’s unique offense. Watch out for QB Chevan Cordeiro in the run game as well as elite athletic talent Calvin Turner who can house it from anywhere, especially against a UCLA defense that’s notoriously bad at tackling.

The Bruins certainly have talent all over the field, but dual-threat QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson should be limited in the passing game by a truly excellent and aggressive secondary. With the Bruins focused on next week I see Hawaii sticking around in this game, or at the very least using their high-powered offense to manage a back-door cover late, so take the points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 363-262 ATS (+82.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.