Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/28

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s Luis Severino on the road, which might be the only thing anyone needs to consider with this game. That’s where he’s been at his absolute worst, posting a 9.56 ERA, a 2.15 WHIP, and a .363 opponent batting average. The Tigers have been playing decent baseball in the second half, and their offense has made big strides in August, averaging 4.2 runs per game. Matching all their left-handed bats against Severino should allow them to put up plenty of runs here, especially with them having the fourth-best over record for home games.

And while the Yankees are tough to trust in any way, shape, or form, I have to expect them to get to Detroit starter Reese Olson today. The Tiger righty either has a great game or a blowup game, no in-between, but the blowups have gotten more prevalent lately. And after using 6 relievers yesterday when Houston dropped 17 runs on them, the Tigers aren’t likely to have their best bullpen talent rested and ready. All the talent on the Yankees should get to this bad pitching staff in one way or another, pushing this one over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Yankees/Tigers First Inning Over 0.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Severino has a 13.80 ERA in the first inning this season. Not to be outdone by too much, Reese Olson has a 7.50 ERA in opening frames, so these pitchers really struggle against the top of the order. The full-game total being lower than it should juices the YRFI to an advantageous price, and I think the scoring gets started right away tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Both of these teams are absolutely crushing overs right now, and despite some quality starting pitching, I see enough offense to get over this total again. In the past 20 games for Houston, the Astros are 15-5 over this total with 11.6 runs on average. And in the past 10 games for Boston, the Sox are 9-1 over this total with 11.9 runs on average. It also helps that they just played a 4-game series last week that went 4-0 to the over and averaged 13.3 runs per game.

I don’t think it stops now, even though we get a brand-name pitcher for Boston with Chris Sale starting. But Sale pitched in last week’s series, getting tagged for 4 runs in 5 innings as the Astros continued to mash left-handed pitching. Houston now leads MLB in weighted runs created against lefties, and is second in every other major category. And their starter Cristian Javier is likely to struggle on the road again where he has a 5.33 ERA with his starts going 10-4 over this total. With both teams locked in offensively, this should be another hit parade with plenty of runs.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

I don’t typically look to back the possibility of runs when Milwaukee is involved, but you can’t ignore the opportunity here. First of all they’re red hot at the plate, going over this total in every game during this current 8-game winning streak. They’ve also hit well against Chicago this season, averaging 5 runs per game in the season series. The Brewers might have a slightly tougher time against Jameson Taillon who’s turned in some strong results lately. But he’s been much more hittable at home, plus the Cubs bullpen is an absolute mess of untrustworthiness. I think the Brewer bats stay hot today, and this is a very attractive price for them to do so.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Brewers/Cubs Over 9 (+100; Odds via Fanduel)

Adding to everything positive about Milwaukee’s offense is a locked-in lineup for Chicago. After back-to-back games of putting 10 runs on Pittsburgh, the task does get tougher against Wade Miley. But he’s a lefty, and the Cubs are third in scoring against lefties this season. These teams have played some fairly high-scoring games against each other this season, and I like the chances of another here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Brewers Moneyline (+105; Odds via Fanduel)

The Cubs just spent a full week on the road, putting them in somewhat of a Malinsky Special here. And I do think Milwaukee has the edge in starting pitching, plus a definite advantage from a bullpen standpoint. I’ll take a shot that the Brew Crew can out-slug the Cubbies for their 9th straight win tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Kyle Muller Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

I just have to find a way to back Seattle in this game, but their price to beat the lowly A’s is astronomical and throws everything out of whack. Seattle has not faced Oakland since before Memorial Day, and this is a far different Mariners offense. With the way they’re hitting the past month, Kyle Muller should be in trouble right away.

Muller was sent down after a brutal May, and in his limited action since being back in the big leagues his leash has been short. His two starts this month have seen him get pulled before the 5th inning despite only allowing 3 total runs. Muller’s last start in Seattle saw him give up 6 runs, and he has a 10.41 ERA on the road this year. That short leash and the locked in Mariners bats should have Muller pulled before he can reach this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1461-1306 ATS (+66.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.