Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/26

Locks

NCAA Football Teasers

Almost any professional bettor will tell you to not tease college football, which I understand from an overarching standpoint given the variance inherent in the sport. The numbers aren’t nearly as sharpened by market efficiency in college as they are in the NFL on a week-to-week basis, except for this week.

Smart money has had since mid-June to sharpen the numbers for Week 0, making moving them via tease more advantageous. Add in that I’m just relieved to have football back after the ridiculousness of baseball, and I’m more than willing to bend the general rule. I’m looking to the following games and using them in a variety of teaser combinations.

UMass @ New Mexico St (-7 Teased Down): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m not quite right in the head, so I’ll definitely be watching ESPN’s airing of two of the traditionally worst teams in all of college football. But one is far worse than the other, as you can’t spell UMass without a-s-s, and the Minutemen have done nothing to improve their program. New Mexico State has a long way to go, but coach Jerry Kill has them pointed in the right direction, and returns a lot of talent offensively.

Electric Aggie QB Diego Pavia returns along with backs Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones to boost an excellent running attack, which should go right through a UMass defense that can’t stop a nosebleed on the ground. The Aggies also brought in some quality transfers on defense, and Kill’s acumen in coaching defense and run game should shine through. This UMass team might also wilt in the Las Cruces heat, so I see the home team easily getting the win which is all the teased number asks for.

Ohio/San Diego State (Under 48.5 Teased Up): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

I think this game will need to be played on the ground, as that’s Ohio’s style and SDSU’s only hope. The Bobcats get QB Kurtis Rourke for this game after offseason knee surgery, and his option running with back Sieh Bangura is tough to stop. It’ll be very difficult for an Aztecs team that lost a ton of talent in the front seven, and I see Ohio chewing up yards and clock all night. But the Aztecs have an excellent defensive play-caller in Kurt Mattix who specializes in red zone stops, and should limit the Bobcat scoring.

And with San Diego State, you can never expect the offense to flourish, especially with a converted safety in Jalen Mayden playing quarterback. That’s why they were 10-3 under this teased total last season, with the overs coming against truly awful defenses. Ohio brings an excellent secondary into this season, and that should force the Aztecs to be more cautious. With the new rules of a ticking clock after first downs, plenty of running should keep this game low scoring.

Hawaii @ Vanderbilt (-17.5 Teased Down): 6:30 PM CT on SEC Network

Watch out for Vanderbilt this season, at least against anyone but the big dogs of the SEC. Clark Lea can flat out coach, and they have continuity at quarterback with excellent sophomore AJ Swann back under center. He has 4 offensive line starters and his top 3 receivers returning as well, so SEC-level offensive talent should have no trouble carving up Hawaii’s defense.

Every solid offense the Rainbow Warriors faced last season tore them up, including Vandy dropping 63 on them in the opener. Hawaii is still building the program from scratch as it completely fell apart after the 2021 season, and traveling to Nashville to face a hungry and sneaky-talented Commodores team should result in a blowout.

San Jose St/USC (Over 66 Teased Down): 7:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

Just as an aside, if the Pac12 wants to know why their league fell apart, opening the season with the reigning Heisman winner relegated to their terrible TV network is a great explanation. But I don’t think that does anything to slow down what will be an elite offense that shreds most competition they face. San Jose State lost several all-conference players on defense, and will be no match for Caleb Williams and company.

USC opened last year by dropping 66 themselves en route to a season where they went 12-2 over this total, and I won’t be surprised to see them approach the number themselves once again. And SJSU can score themselves with Chevan Cordeiro back at quarterback, especially if the Trojan defense is still less than stellar. This is a perfect example of manipulating the number to where I want it as well. The total here opened at 60.5 but was driven up by smart money, so teasing it back down below what sharps believe is the best number creates a big advantage.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) SJSU/USC 1st Quarter Over 14 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

So the full game total here is now up to 66 after plenty of steam this week. Half of that would be 33 theoretically for the first half, but it’s bumped up to 35.5 to get the key number covered which is common. Now half of that would be in the neighborhood of 17.5, yet this first quarter sits at just 14 points. I don’t know how or why the books seem to be missing this, but it’s a great opportunity in my opinion.

Giving Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams the opportunity to script plays all summer for the start of this game is simply deadly to defenses. USC averaged 14 points in the first quarter of the opening three games last year by themselves, and that was year one of the Riley/Williams era in SoCal.

And don’t discount SJSU’s ability to score early as well, since they too have had all summer to prepare for this game. With Cordeiro and arguably the Mountain West’s best receiver in Justin Lockhart, plus the nation’s 11th-most pass happy offense last year, points are coming early for the Spartans and the Trojans tonight.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Washington Mystics Over 168 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

I think we’ll continue to see the red hot offense of Las Vegas here, as well as their road defensive struggles. Whether or not we see Elena Delle Donne for Washington is a bit of a mystery, but it might not matter for getting to this total. The Mystics star missed the other meeting this season and they piled up 202 points, driven by the Aces being on fire.

After games of 112 and 94 points to start this road trip, Las Vegas is definitely still on fire and I don’t see the Mystics slowing them down. But the road defense remains a concern as the Aces have allowed 93.0 PPG their past 5 on the road. Those factors should combine again to get this over a total that’s on the rise.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1463-1304 ATS (+67.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.