Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/26

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4 (+100): 7:15 PM CT on MLB Network

I wish both starting pitchers for this game were left-handers; I’d be hammering the over with how these teams crush lefties. But Jose Quintana is the lone southpaw starting tonight, so I’m looking to isolate Atlanta’s elite offense against left-handed pitching. With the month St Louis has been having they’ve actually passed Atlanta for a lot of hitting stats against lefties, but the Braves are still right up there. They have top-5 ranks for most metrics, and are still number one in baseball for hard-hit percentage.

Atlanta has a strong history against Quintana as well, owning a cumulative .275 career batting average. They also tagged him for four runs in five innings when he was still a Pittsburgh Pirate earlier this season. Quintana has struggled against the top teams in baseball against lefties, owning a 6.93 ERA in five starts against the teams that are most consistent against left-handed pitchers. The Braves also come into this game in good form offensively, averaging 5.8 runs per game across their past six series. They should be able to keep that going against a pitcher that’s a good matchup for them, and who they have familiarity with.

MLB (0.65 Unit) NY Yankees -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-130): 8:40 PM CT on ESPN+

It's a brand-name team that I watched erupt last night, starting a brand-name pitcher who’s been struggling, and at an outsized price no less. Everything about this game screams trap, but I’m walking straight in. Avoiding betting on what you just saw last is extremely important, but what I saw last night was a Yankees team that got Giancarlo Stanton back from injury and has had enough of losing. They’ve strung together four straight wins now, all by the run line, and have some weak opponents coming up that they can brutalize.

They might do exactly that to their former teammate JP Sears tonight, who has admittedly been brilliant for Oakland since being traded last month. But pitchers facing their former team is usually an advantage for the bats, and with the Yankees having so much power against lefties like Sears they should stay hot at the plate. They might need it with Gerrit Cole’s recent struggles, but the weak Oakland offense is no match for New York if this turns into a slugfest. The Yankees are 3-1 to the run line against the A’s this season, so I’ll lay the heavy juice on that continuing tonight.

DeGenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 831-697 ATS (+76 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.