Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/25

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels -1.5 (-110) @ Baltimore Orioles: 6:05 PM CT on MASN

The bats woke up for the Baltimore Orioles last night against some bad Los Angeles Angels pitching, but they’ll be going back to sleep tonight.

The stat line for Shohei Ohtani’s MVP campaign should get some padding as he takes on this epically futile Orioles team. The 19 straight losses with 18 of them by the run line should continue tonight as Baltimore is 27th in average, 25th in OPS, and dead last in scoring against right-handed pitching. And they’re not up against any old righty either: Ohtani is extremely locked in, owning a 1.58 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over his past 40 innings of work.

The Orioles also haven’t named a starter yet for this game, meaning the Angels likely get to tee off on some of the worst relievers in baseball. This Baltimore slide is approaching historic levels, they’re facing the MVP, they’re the worst run line cover team in baseball and the run line has standard juice – sign me up.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Orioles Team Total Under 4 (-110)

No team has gone over this total in any of the past 6 starts for Ohtani, and I don’t see the Orioles doing it either. Baltimore only scoring 2.9 runs per game during this losing streak and are 12-3-5 under this total during that stretch. They’ve also scored the fewest runs in baseball since the trade deadline, and they really struggle against right-handed pitching as I noted above.

I just don’t see much out of Baltimore tonight, so I’ll attack that futility from this angle as well.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 (+120) @ San Diego Padres: 9:10 PM CT on ESPN

Somebody shake the San Diego Padres and tell them the season is still going. The one-time playoff shoe-ins have lost 10 of their last 12 games, falling 14 games out of the division race and now 1 game out of the 2nd Wildcard spot.

Of those 10 recent losses, 7 have been by two-plus runs and I’m thinking that continues tonight. It doesn’t get any easier for the Padres here as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers again. After the Dodgers covered the run line last night, this time they send NL Cy Young frontrunner Walker Buehler to the mound. Buehler is about as hot as a pitcher can get right now with a 1.51 ERA in his past 10 starts, and is a little better statistically on the road, where he’s also undefeated this season. The powerful Padres lineup hasn’t had much success against him either, batting just .186 with a .657 OPS for their careers.

San Diego will try to counter with Blake Snell, but he doesn’t pitch deep into games and it’s been the bullpen letting the Padres down recently, posting bottom-10 stats in just about every category during this ugly 12-game stretch. The moneyline for this game is just outside my comfort zone to lay, but I’m happy to take a shot at a plus-juice return on the run line while targeting this collapsing Padres team.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 362-260 ATS (+82.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.