Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/25

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

Once again I’m looking at the Nationals against an average left-handed starter and seeing runs. Braxton Garrett has outperformed his underlying metrics all season, and has had plenty of issues in home games where his ERA and opponent average soar. You just can’t ignore the fact that Washington still leads MLB in weighted runs created against lefties, plus they’re playing some pretty good baseball lately. They’ve only averaged 3.2 runs against the Marlins this season but haven’t faced Garrett yet, so I think their strengths shine in this one.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+140; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Of course they did, because baseball. Of….Course. The Cubs blew a multi-run lead twice last night, including in the 10th inning, but I see them having a more convincing victory tonight. I couldn’t believe the price here given Chicago’s dominance over Pittsburgh, especially considering the pitching advantage they have. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t looked great from a results standpoint lately, but has been the one Cubs pitcher not getting timely run support.

I think that changes here against Mitch Keller, who has had regression really come for him the past month-plus. His 7 starts since the All-Star break have seen him post a 6.98 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Plus he struggles against the Cubs, with Chicago’s bats tagging him for a career .348 average and 1.075 OPS. With the Cubs offense set to be livelier tonight, I think they run away in this one as they normally do against the Buccos and cash the big plus-juice return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Boston Red Sox (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Apple TV

The Dodgers are obviously just a freight train in general, but are becoming even more of one in the early stages of games. I’m sure they recognize the weakness of their bullpen and want to jump out to big leads, and that’s what I think they can do here.

Boston finds themselves in several situational disadvantages for this game. They’re in a Malinsky Special situation here playing right away after returning home from a 10-game road trip. And they just put up 17 runs yesterday, so regression is about to hit them even harder. The Sox are also 24th in first five innings runs allowed at home, and starting Kutter Crawford whose ERA in Fenway is nearly triple what it is on the road.

And where did this version of Lance Lynn come from? The bulldog version appears to be back, posting a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP since moving to LA. The Dodgers are 2nd in MLB with 3.19 runs on average in the first five innings of road games, and with these advantages should jump out to another early lead tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits (+155; Odds via DraftKings)

While his home run power has fallen off since the All-Star break, Mookie is absolutely raking this month. August is seeing him bat .463 with a 1.334 OPS, and he’s logged multiple hits in 14 of his 21 games. He’s pulling the ball very well which sets up nicely to knock a couple off the Green Monster tonight, and at this kind of return I have to back the hot streak.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1462-1302 ATS (+68.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.