Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/24

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pablo Lopez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

If the Twins and Rocco Baldelli don’t give Pablo Lopez a longer leash in this game, I’m really going to lose it over the mismanagement of my favorite ball club. Minnesota’s staff ERA has ballooned since the All-Star break and is certainly concerning, but it’s not Lopez who’s at fault. The Twins ace has allowed 1 run in 4 August starts, just one! And going back 6 starts he has a miniscule 1.22 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, yet he’s only pitched into the 7th inning twice. Let the man pitch against an ice cold Rangers offense, give the shaky bullpen some time off, and let’s get this nice plus-money return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

This is the kind of situation where baseball variance rears its ugly head and ends an incredibly obvious streak, but I’m doing it anyway. How can you not back Chicago here when they’re 6-0 against Pittsburgh this season, with all of those wins by at least 4 runs, and owning a plus-34 run differential?

The Pirates haven’t named a starter for this game yet, but Chicago is throwing Justin Steele who has been remarkably consistent and is in the NL Cy Young conversation. With the Cubs red hot at the plate and such a strong track record here, I’ll dare the baseball gods to beat me in a spot that seems pretty obvious.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Dallas Wings Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

There’s been remarkable consistency in these teams getting into shootouts with each other. Neither team seems to be able to guard the other, resulting in a 3-0 record over this total on the season with an average of 178.0 PPG. While the Lynx are inconsistent, their inability to set tempo will allow Dallas to make this a fast-paced game again. And with the Wings out for revenge after Tuesday’s loss, the floor of their scoring should be what mainly helps push this over the total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Chicago Sky Over 169 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV

Defense away from home has been a fairly consistent issue for Las Vegas this season, as they’re allowing 83.9 PPG on the road compared to 80.1 for the season overall. That was evident on Tuesday when they let a shorthanded Atlanta team put up 100 points. It was also on display the last time they visited Chicago, as the Sky managed 95 in that game.

But even the meeting in Las Vegas hit 173 points, so these teams know how to score on each other. Chicago finally broke out of an offensive slump on Tuesday, dropping 102 on a good Seattle defense. If the Aces play the style that’s been the norm for them, this should fly over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1460-1300 ATS (+68.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.