Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
Even after trading away a lot of big names and key pieces at the deadline, the Washington Nationals can still hit and put up runs. That’s evidenced by them going 10-3-2 over this number their past 15 games, and I think it continues today against the Milwaukee Brewers.
That’s mainly because the Nationals are having a bullpen game, and it’s easy to see how the Brewers will manage to score with a pen that’s 25th in ERA, 28th in WAR, and 30th in xFIP this month. While Adrian Houser has had some good starts for Milwaukee, he’s faced a lot of weaker lineups lately and should struggle against all the left-handed bats that Washington can line up.
The Brewer bats woke up yesterday, Christian Yelich in particular, so with favorable matchups for the hitters on both teams I’m seeing plenty of runs in this one.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 1:15 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
The Adam Wainwright of years past shows up when he’s pitching against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Wainwright was an elite pitcher for a long time and has rekindled that greatness against the Pirates this season in 2 wins where he’s allowed 1 total run, the most recent matchup being a complete game shutout two weeks ago. That’s not to say he hasn’t been good in general though, because his last 6 starts have seen the opposing team stay under this total. But Wainwright dials it up a notch against Pittsburgh, as their lineup has a combined .129 average and .317 OPS in their careers against him.
The St Louis Cardinals are in desperate need of another excellent start from Wainwright after dropping the first two games of this series, and I think he answers that call. With a bullpen that’s been vastly improved this month and an untouchable closer at the back end, I see the Cardinals holding Pittsburgh to another low output here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 359-257 ATS (+83.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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