Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/21

Locks

MLB (1.25 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles: 6:05 PM CT on MASN2

Streaks are meant to end, but I think this one can be ridden a little longer. That would be the 16 consecutive losses by two-plus runs we’ve seen out of the Baltimore Orioles, making them the worst run line cover team in baseball.

It’s just incredible futility that should continue today against this surging Atlanta Braves team. Unfortunately for Baltimore the excellence of Matt Harvey was short-lived, as his 18 scoreless innings streak has morphed into a 6.59 ERA over his past 3 starts, not surprisingly all were lopsided losses. I expect his usual gas can self to be on display here against a Braves team that’s near the top of the league in every major category versus right-handed pitching.

Drew Smyly hasn’t been elite for the Braves but he also hasn’t lost a road start in 8 straight outings, and 17 of the past 20 wins for Atlanta have come by two-plus runs. It won’t last forever, but I’m riding this Orioles streak until it bucks me (what, I said buck, with a b).

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 6 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet RM

The wind is blowing out at Coors Field. That should be enough on its own to tell you a Colorado Rockies game is going to see some runs, and I think this one definitely will. That’s because the Rockies have been playing extremely well at home lately and leaning on their offense to do it.

Colorado is having a great August as they lead MLB in average, slugging, and OPS this month, have scored the 5th-most runs, plus they’ve met or exceeded this total in 11 of their past 13 home games. Tonight the Rockies get to pick on Zac Gallen whose last 4 road starts have seen the opposing team average 7.8 runs per game. Gallen has only faced the Rockies once this season and it was Colorado’s highest scoring output of the season as they plated 14 runs.

It’s tough to know what to expect from the Arizona Diamondbacks offense, so I’ll just look to the hot Rockies bats to get them over this isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 359-255 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.