Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/21

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays ML @ NY Yankees (+100): 12:35 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m worried we’re almost at a point where it’s becoming trendy to fade the Yankees. But when a team is on a 3-14 stretch, what else can you really do? Apologies to Yankee fans (full disclosure, I love Aaron Judge), but I don’t think it gets any better today.

The Yanks will have to contend with Alek Manoah this afternoon, which historically hasn’t been great even before they fell into this offensive funk. The Toronto righty has only allowed a career .175 average and .483 OPS to Yankee hitters, plus a .164 on-base average across his 3 starts against them this season. With his dominance against right-handed bats and New York’s reliance on production from that side, the Pinstripes could be in big trouble today.

If New York’s futility at the plate continues against Manoah, I’m anticipating the Jays only needing a couple of runs to be in position to win this. They should be able to get it against Nestor Cortes, as their lineup has a cumulative .291 average and .949 OPS against the Yankee lefty. Until the Yankees break out of their slump for real, I can’t do anything but go against them in a tough matchup like this one.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/San Diego Padres Over 8.5 (-110): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Speaking of teams in offensive funks, the Padres need to wake up too. They’ve only managed 6 total runs in the 3 games of this series against Washington, but just in time to fix any hitting problems, here comes Patrick Corbin.

It’s now a streak of 7 straight starts for Corbin where he’s allowed 4, 5, or 6 runs. He’s also yet to face San Diego this season, but their lineup has a cumulative .300 average and .939 OPS for career numbers against him.

So I’m expecting the Padres to break out of this mini-slump in significant fashion today, but don’t count out Washington for plenty of runs here. Padres starter Sean Manaea has really struggled lately, posting an 8.06 ERA over the past month. He’s been knocked around by some pretty questionable lineups, too, with even less pop than the Nats have.

So with Washington already averaging 3.2 runs per game against San Diego this season, they should be a solid contributor to this total. Warmer weather in San Diego and a breeze blowing out of Petco Park should also help to get this over a fairly moderate number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 830-693 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.