Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/20

Locks

MLB (1.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees -1.5 (-125): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’ve had nothing but trouble trying to bet on or against the Minnesota Twins this season. But when it comes to them playing the New York Yankees, I’m pretty confident in knowing what’s coming.

If you haven’t noticed, the empire is striking back, with the Yankees rocketing up the standings behind a 24-9 record since the All-Star break. And 18 of those wins have come by two-plus runs. Their ownership of the Twins doesn’t appear in any jeopardy either as the Pinstripes are already 3-1 to the run line this season against Minnesota, plus they’re 18-2 overall in the past 20 meetings in the Bronx.

Call it a mental block or a voodoo curse, whatever the cause of the struggles is, I’ve seen enough Twins baseball to know they’re really up against it in this series -- and that’s without the Yankees being one of the hottest teams in baseball. I’m not paying the “Yankee tax” baked into this outsized moneyline, so I’ll lay a small amount of juice to count on another comfortable Yankees win here.

MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 6 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

The Atlanta Braves are finally starting to live up to expectations as they surge towards an NL East crown, even with Ronald Acuna Jr. lost for the season.

Their ability to produce at the plate hasn’t suffered too much in Acuna’s absence, the Braves are averaging 6.1 runs per game in the 2nd half of the season, and not many situations scream runs more than this one. Going against Baltimore Orioles starter Keegan Akin is an easy matchup for just about any team. In his last 8 starts the opposition has met or exceed this total, posting a 12.06 ERA along the way. Couple that with a bottom-ranked Baltimore bullpen, and it’s no wonder that teams have met or exceeded this total in 14 of the past 15 Orioles games.

The Braves will be able to stack right-handed bats against the left-handed Akin, and being in an AL park gives them a full nine innings to hammer away at these Orioles pitchers with the added benefit of using the designated hitter. Baltimore pitching is pure over fuel, but with Atlanta’s ace Max Fried on the mound I just want to isolate the Braves to clear their total.

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The New York Mets might want to quit bringing in former Cleveland Indians (Guardians?) players to fill important roles because it’s just not working out.

Francisco Lindor isn’t the only glaring example as Carlos Carrasco has been getting shelled in his return to a starter’s role, posting a 10.32 ERA in some very short appearances. That includes his last outing against these Los Angeles Dodgers, where he allowed 6 runs in just 2 innings and the Dodgers hung 14 at Citi Field, a tougher park to hit in than Dodger Stadium. While I don’t expect that level of damage again, I do see L.A. getting over this number. They’re 6th in batting average, 3rd in OPS, 3rd in hard contact rate, and have scored the 2nd-most runs against right-handed pitching this season.

What I like about this number is that it’s being artificially held down by a lower full-game total. That's due to the excellent Walker Buehler starting for the Dodgers, and the added value from that has me taking the over here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 359-255 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.