Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/19

Locks

MLB (1.8 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-120) @ St Louis Cardinals: 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports MW

Another day, another run line cover on the road for the Milwaukee Brewers last night. They’re now the owners of the best run line record in road games at 67.7%, are 3rd-best overall, and have the 2nd-best plus/minus to the run line away from home. Milwaukee is also 4-1 to the run line when visiting the St. Louis Cardinals (owners of the 5th-worst run line plus/minus in home games) and I think that continues tonight.

The Cardinals are stuck facing a dominant pitcher for the third straight night as Brandon Woodruff takes the mound. The Milwaukee right-hander owns a 2.11 ERA and .143 on-base average allowed in road games to help propel the team’s road record. And the St. Louis hitters have found nothing but futility versus Woodruff, collectively batting .124 with a .374 OPS against him. On the other side, Jon Lester has a 9.58 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in two home appearances since being traded to the Cardinals, so Milwaukee should be able to get to the aging veteran tonight.

A surging Brewers team with a pitching mismatch and strong trends in their favor has me loving this run line.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Connecticut Sun Under 151 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

If you’ve been paying any attention to the WNBA (yes, you should be, shame on you for asking) you’ll notice that the Minnesota Lynx tend to get into pretty high-scoring contests. Their games have averaged a total of 161.9 points this season, obviously well above this posted total, but the Lynx simply don’t score when facing the Connecticut Sun.

In the two meetings so far this season, the Lynx have been held to their two lowest regulation outputs of the year by a wide margin. It’s not too surprising given the Sun allow the lowest field goal percentage and fewest points per game in the league, plus their past 6 games are 5-1 under this total, averaging just 138 points.

While one of those previous Lynx/Sun meetings snuck over this total in overtime, both went under the posted total and averaged 129 points in regulation. Books have had trouble with the wide variance in WNBA totals, and I don’t think they’re quite on top of this one either, so I’ll trust the trends and go with the under here.

Degenerates

NFL New England Patriots/Philadelphia Eagles Over 38 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NFL Network

NFL preseason games thus far have gone 14-3 to the under with an average of 31.2 total points scored. That’s really no surprise given the offensive ineptitude of backups and vanilla play-calling that makes the preseason just so worthwhile, but what’s interesting is the reaction by the oddsmakers.

The average posted total for the first round of games was 35.5, and despite the results, we see an average posted total this week at 36.7 points suggesting books expect improved offense. In years past it was Week 3 of the preseason that finally saw starters play significant time, so with only 3 preseason games now it seems reasonable that Week 2 would take over that spot.

If you’re degenerately betting preseason football these are important angles to consider this week, and perhaps worth testing tonight with a posted total above that average number which suggests points are coming.

Tiny Nick is 359-253 ATS (+88 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.