Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/18

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Miami Marlins First 5 Innings ML @ LA Dodgers (+105; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

All good things come to an end, right? That includes Dodger win streaks, especially when they reach this level of 11 straight. It’s definitely scary to go against the LA freight train, but it won’t last forever and there aren’t many better candidates to end the streak than the defending NL Cy Young winner.

I think Sandy Alcantara keeps the Marlins competitive early as he’s starting to look more locked in and consistent in recent weeks, with two complete games to his credit in the past 4 starts. He has compiled a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in those games, so he gives the Marlins a decent shot to hold down the hot LA offense. Most importantly for this bet, Miami is 3-1 in the first 5 innings of those games despite being 2-2 overall.

And I’ll continue to fade Tony Gonsolin at every opportunity, as perhaps the luckiest pitcher in baseball compared to his advanced metrics gets another start here. Gonsolin has been alternating good and bad outings, and it’s time for a bad one tonight. The Dodgers have started slowly in plenty of games during this win streak, and I’ll count on an excellent pitcher outdueling a mediocre one early on.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty/Phoenix Mercury 1st Half Over 84 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION

This is a tough spot for both teams, and I think the defense from both of them is going to suffer as a result. For Phoenix, they’re without both of their centers, Brittney Griner and Megan Gustafson, who entered health and safety protocols. That should allow the Liberty to score at will inside against a Mercury team that hardly plays any defense to begin with.

And I think New York will push that advantage early to get this game over with. The Liberty just spent several days in Vegas – which can be tiring – and played late into last night before traveling for this game. With how elite they’ve been offensively in first halves against bad teams, they should drive scoring here.

The Mercury have been hot at home though and tend to have big first halves before fading after halftime. The previous two meetings saw 87 and 99 points at half, including one game where Phoenix was without Griner and Diana Taurasi, so I think this one gets out to a fast start as well.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1453-1290 ATS (+70.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.