Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+115) 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
The Chicago Cubs went from good to bad almost instantaneously after the trade deadline, and their starting pitcher for this game, Kyle Hendricks, seems to have done the same.
The Cubs have completely collapsed, losing 18 of their past 20 games with a minus-75 run differential in that stretch. Two of those losses have come behind Hendricks, who has a 6.35 ERA since the Cubs sold off at the trade deadline. They’ve also been getting beaten up by the Cincinnati Reds, who have taken the last four in the season series by an average of 5.3 runs per game. And the Reds also hit Hendricks hard, with their batters posting a career .347 average and .984 OPS against him.
Cincy sends Vladimir Gutierrez to the mound tonight, owner of a 1.78 ERA his past 4 starts, and should easily hold down this weak Cubs lineup while the Reds punish another right-handed pitcher. Cincinnati has all the motivation in this game because they’re in the thick of the wildcard race, so I expect them to cruise to another easy win over a terrible team.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
The Arizona Diamondbacks have shown some fight lately, but all I needed to see in order to back the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line here was “bullpen game” for Arizona.
That would be a Diamondbacks bullpen that owns the 2nd-worst ERA in baseball on the season, the 2nd-worst xFIP, and are dead last in WAR. The Phillies are in need of a punching bag to beat up on after stumbling against two hot teams to close their homestand, and the Diamondbacks should give them that exact opportunity.
Kyle Gibson is also looking for a bounce-back after a tough outing and should find it against an Arizona lineup that’s 25th in average, 29th in OPS, and 29th in ISO power numbers against right-handed pitchers this season. The Phillies are in a tight division race and need wins in spots like this, so I expect them to take full advantage. With a plus-juice return making it even more attractive, I’m laying the run line here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 359-250 ATS (+90.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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