Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets First 5 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 (+125; Odds via PointsBet): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
It’s not a lot of fun to back the cratering Mets in most situations, but this is one of the rare exceptions. If you’re not taking every opportunity to fade what’s left of Adam Wainwright, you’re simply missing out. The aging righty now has a 9.26 ERA and .389 opponent batting average in home games, along with a 10.45 ERA in night games.
The Cardinals are only allowing him to start games out of respect for his career, and those outings are getting short and disastrous. His past 7 starts have seen him blow up for a 14.87 ERA, allowing the opponent to go over this number in all but one game. It’s sad to see Wainwright as a shell of his former self, but I just have to exploit the opportunity here.
WNBA (0.25 Unit) NY Liberty/Las Vegas Aces 2nd Half Under 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Prime Video
If you’re able to bet second half numbers pre-flop, this is a good opportunity to do so. Otherwise I’d recommend looking for this as the number to go under for a live bet at halftime. Either way, I’m following a general trend in the WNBA this season of second halves being lower scoring, as well as in this series.
Two of the three meetings between these teams have had second halves lower-scoring than the first, and those second-half results have averaged 78.0 points. The Liberty have really been able to use their size to shut down Las Vegas inside, and I think that continues tonight for a quieter second half of scoring.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1452-1289 ATS (+70.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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