Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/15

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I hate sort of going against my Twins here, but this number is just hard to pass up. Let’s start with the fact that even though Detroit is the second-lowest scoring team in baseball, this is still below their season average of 3.9 runs per game. That average rises to 4.4 runs per game against the Twins this season.

Minnesota’s pitching has been some of the worst in the league since the All-Star break, as their early season success comes back to reality. Bailey Ober has been a part of that problem, posting a 5.88 ERA and .351 opponent batting average the past 30 days. The Tigers have also hit him well this year, going over this total in both his starts against them. Hopefully the Twins can win a higher-scoring game here, but I think the Tigers get over this fairly low number.

MLB (1.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Atlanta Braves Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on TBS

Mea culpa on thinking the Braves offense would suffer any kind of downswing yesterday. If tough scheduling and some injuries can’t slow them down, then what chance does Luis Severino have? Literally none in my opinion, so the Braves might be in for another outburst like they had last night against the self-described “worst pitcher in baseball.” If Atlanta doesn’t capitalize on his awfulness then baseball is truly a sport that makes no sense.

But I think we see runs out of the Yankees here too as Atlanta has their own struggling starter taking the mound. Bryce Elder has posted a 7.94 ERA over his past 6 starts as inevitable regression started to come for him. Those games went 5-1 over this total with 15.2 runs on average, so the Braves tend to give him plenty of support. The Yankees have been much more productive against righties in general, and should tack on plenty of runs in a game where Atlanta honestly might do it all themselves.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel)

With Severino now sporting a 9.89 ERA and .373 opponent batting average on the road, plus an 11.65 ERA and .396 opponent average in night games, it’s basically impossible for the Braves to not smash him right away. This team has a tendency to erupt for massive innings early in games, often the first inning where they are the highest-scoring team in baseball. They’re also the highest-scoring team in the first five, and average 3.9 runs at home, so this should get ugly for Severino early and often.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty/Las Vegas Aces 1st Half Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Prime Video

I’ll admit to not having a great feel for this game since it’s all but guaranteed to be a Finals preview and yet the last meeting was so lopsided. But the Liberty are about as locked in offensively as it gets right now, evidenced by their 58-point first half on Sunday. It’s the first half where they’ve been elite on offense all season, and it showed in the first two meetings with Las Vegas. Those games hit 91 and 93 points before halftime, and both teams had room for improvement.

The Aces were slowed down Sunday early on by an Atlanta team looking to grind that game to a halt, but that’s not the style they’ll see today with New York. These are the two best offenses in the WNBA by a wide margin so this total is high for a reason, but styles, trends, and history tell me the number isn’t quite high enough.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1450-1285 ATS (+72.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.