Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/14

Locks

MLB (0.6 Unit) Houston Astros/Miami Marlins Over 7.5 (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

Location is the reason this total is so low, as the park in Miami is fairly friendly to pitchers and has created a trend to the under there this season. But this game features two left-handed starters against two offenses that are elite against lefty pitching, and that has me looking over.

With Framber Valdez going for Houston, his strong early season numbers are masking his recent results. The past 7 starts by Valdez have seen him compile a 5.65 ERA, and he’s been consistently worse on the road this year with his ERA nearly double what it is at home. The Marlins still have the best batting average against lefties in the league, and should get to Valdez here.

But the Astros should be in line for plenty of scoring here too after a bad day at the plate yesterday. They’ve absolutely crushed lefties since their lineup returned to full health, and Braxton Garrett should be easy for them to jump on. The Marlins lefty has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, with his past 7 home starts going 6-1 over this total. The number is on the rise for good reason, and I think we see double-digit runs here tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) NY Yankees/ Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Under 5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on MLB Network

I love it when the team that loses on Sunday Night Baseball has to travel and play the next day. It’s a difficult spot for any team to be in and tends to weigh them down in the next game, even a team as good as the Braves. This also doubles as a Malinsky Special with the Braves returning home after an 11-game road trip. While I think that all has a negative impact on Atlanta tonight, I’m not ready to fully fade them, especially against this dumpster fire of a Yankees team.

But I think it keeps them groggy for the early portion of this game against Clarke Schmidt who has put in some strong results lately. Add in that the Braves had a couple of key players suffer injuries last night and their offense might not be firing on all cylinders today. I’ll also count on Max Fried to pitch well in his first home start since coming off the injured list. He’ll face a Yankees squad that’s 26th in scoring and weighted runs created against lefties, so if he holds them down we should see a low-scoring start to this game.

Degenerates

MLB Colorado Rockies Team Total Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on FS1

It’s another Malinsky Special here as the Rockies return home after 10 games on the road. They don’t typically do well in their first game back home after significant road trips, generally struggling to score. This Colorado lineup is short-handed at the moment, and it really showed in LA as they even struggled against mediocre Dodger pitching.

Facing Merrill Kelly tonight won’t help as he’s held the Rockies to a cumulative .213 average and .626 OPS in his career. Plus, the Rockies managed just 1 run in Kelly’s last start at Coors in a similar scheduling spot. I wish this number wasn’t so low given the high full-game total, but I just don’t trust Colorado to produce enough here.

Tiny Nick is 1450-1283 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.