Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/13

Locks

MLB (1.8 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-120) @ Pittsburgh Pirates  6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers bounce from one punching bag team to the next as they get another opportunity to continue their dominance over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The last series in Pittsburgh was almost laughable, with the Brewers pulling off a three-game sweep in which their run differential averaged 8.3 per game. And in seven games at PNC Park so far this season the Brewers have a plus-42 run differential.

That should continue tonight with an underrated pitcher going for the Brew Crew in Brett Anderson. While not one of Milwaukee’s elite starters, Anderson has owned the Pirates this season with no earned runs in two lopsided wins against them. He’s also been nearly untouchable his last five starts, posting a 1.40 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.

While Pirates starter Mitch Keller hasn’t faced the Brewers this season it really doesn’t matter for a pitcher that owns an 8.29 ERA at home, plus the games that he’s lost this season have come by an average margin of 5.8 runs. It’s the Brewers, it’s the Pirates, it’s likely to get ugly, so I’m laying the run line even at this level of juice.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) @ Seattle Mariners  9:10PM CT on SportsNet NW

There are two fairly decent pitchers on the mound for this game, but I just think it’s going to end up a lopsided affair given the struggles of the Seattle Mariners. They simply can’t hit, posting the second-worst average in baseball, the third-worst OPS, and are only scoring 3.5 runs per game over the past two weeks.

Compare that with the Toronto Blue Jays who own the second-best average, best OPS, and highest ISO power number in the league and you get a situation where the Mariners aren’t likely to keep up. Perhaps the ace of Seattle’s staff, Chris Flexen has been leaking oil lately with a 6.00 ERA his past four starts – three of which the Mariners have lost – and could be in trouble tonight against that hot and powerful Toronto lineup.

The Jays send out Robbie Ray who has been excellent since the start of July, posting a 1.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in those seven starts, and he should be able to hold down this light-hitting Mariners lineup with the worst average against lefties in baseball. We had this exact pitching matchup just over six weeks ago with Toronto winning 9-3 and the Blue Jays have only gotten better since, so I see another easy win for Toronto here.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+140)

Oakland A’s (-155) @ Texas Rangers  7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Generally in sports betting it’s prudent to set aside what you just saw, but I can’t unsee the Oakland A’s winning 17-0 yesterday. Nor can I ignore their wins in 11 of the past 13 games by an average margin of 4.9 runs. Included in that stretch were three easy wins over this collapsing Texas Rangers team, owners of a 5-20 record since the All-Star break.

The A’s have now won five straight against Texas and the hot streak should continue with Cole Irvin on the mound, as the collection of Triple-A hitters for Texas is batting a collective .167 with a .475 OPS against him. This moneyline is outside my comfort zone to lay, so I’ll just ask Oakland to win while tying it into this next parlay leg.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-200)  8:45 PM CT on NBC Sports-BA

The San Francisco Giants just keep on winning to silence the doubters – both overall with wins in eight of their past 10, and at home with the second-best home record in baseball. The Colorado Rockies on the other hand still have the fewest road wins in baseball, and have lost six of seven at Oracle Park this season with a minus-28 run differential.

The Colorado starter tonight, Austin Gomber, has looked decent at times but probably wishes he could pitch anywhere except here tonight, as he owns a 12.38 ERA in two lopsided losses at San Fran this season. The complete opposite is true for Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani who has not allowed a run to the Rockies this season in two dominant wins. I’ll continue trusting and riding this Giants team to get another win and close this parlay in the process.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 358-247 ATS (+93.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.