Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/11

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/NY Mets Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

I’ve decided I just don’t trust Atlanta’s pitching in general, at least not until their top starting arms return to health. That includes tonight’s starter Charlie Morton, who’s had significant regression hit him with a 7.32 ERA his past 4 starts. It was bound to happen with underlying metrics that always suggested he was always outperforming his expected numbers. The Mets can be about as inconsistent as it gets offensively, but they’ve had success in putting up 4 runs against Morton in both meetings with him this year.

And the Braves offense marches on, pushing them into the second-best over record in the league. They’ve had a lot of success against the Mets this year, averaging 7 runs per game in the season series. That should continue against Tylor Megill, who’s had plenty of blow-up starts against strong offenses this year. The bottom line though is these teams are averaging 12.3 runs per game against each other this year, the Braves are on a 10-3 run over this number, and I don’t see why tonight is any different.

MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/KC Royals Over 10.5 (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

It’s a hot day in Kansas City so the ball should be compressing, and the wind is blowing out of Kauffman Stadium which makes perfect conditions to crush bad pitching. And the pitching can’t get a whole lot worse here for both sides.

Adam Wainwright will go again for St Louis as his career winds down, and it’s been rough lately. His past 6 outings have seen him post a 12.27 ERA and 2.59 WHIP, just sky high numbers that have resulted in those games averaging 12.7 runs.

The Cardinals haven’t given him much run support in those games, but they should today. The Royals are throwing a bullpen game, and their relievers have the second-highest ERA in the league. St Louis definitely has the talent to crush poor pitching like that, and I think they turn around an inconsistent offense to put up plenty here.

MLB (0.6 Unit) San Diego Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

The absolute cratering of this Diamondbacks team since the All-Star break just won’t let up, and I don’t think it does tonight either with more disadvantages on the mound. I got a live look at Arizona starter Ryne Nelson when he pitched at Target Field, and was unimpressed. That start bucked his trend of excellence on the road, and now he’s back home where the trend has been awfulness. His 8.01 ERA and .356 opponent batting average in Chase Field are something even the Padres can take advantage of here.

I don’t think San Diego will need much though, as Blake Snell should shut down Arizona once again tonight. A completely anemic offense has been the main issue for Arizona in their 5-19 run since the All-Star break. I don’t see it improving with Snell on the mound, who has only allowed a cumulative .135 average and .492 OPS to the Snakes in his career. The Padres have been excellent all year in the first 5 innings with Snell on the mound, and I think they take advantage of Arizona’s continuing collapse tonight.

WNBA (1.5 Unit) Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces -10 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ION

The Aces have now lost 3 games on the year, so there’s plenty of data available to see just how strongly they bounce back from those games. Las Vegas woke up after their first loss this season to lead by double digits at half of their next 5 games, with a 14.2 point average lead. The results after their second loss were more of the same, 5 straight double-digit halftime leads by an average 16.4 point margin.

There’s no wakeup call quite like the drubbing they took on Sunday, and they responded with a monster first half that far exceeded even their usual bounce backs. The Aces boat raced Dallas by 28 in the first half, and I don’t see a let-up here. The Mystics look lost without Elena Delle Donne, and wouldn’t be a match for the Aces even with her healthy. A motivated Aces team on their home floor should run Washington out of the gym by halftime tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1443-1277 ATS (+72.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.