Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/10

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -3 @ Indiana Fever (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Lynx are finally starting to compete well with and even knock off some of the top tier teams in the league, so a bottom-feeding Indiana team should be no trouble for them. The Fever are certainly bottom-feeders when it comes to defense, allowing the most points in the WNBA this season.

The Lynx looked much better offensively once Napheesa Collier shook off the rust, and should have no problems scoring with ease here. Indiana’s current 3-7 ATS run is the result of that defense allowing 84.5 PPG in that stretch. And with the Lynx 10-4 ATS on the road this year, I’ll count on them to keep taking care of business against the team with the league’s worst record.

WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream/Seattle Storm Under 165 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV

At first glance with this game, you’d think Atlanta’s second-most generous defense and Seattle’s fourth-most generous defense would be reason to look at the over. But that’s just not what the results have been, with these teams combining to go 16-4 to the under in their past 10 games each. They’re also 14-4-2 under this particular total in that stretch, including their first meeting this season that saw 160 total points.

Smart money immediately jumped on the under for this game, recognizing the trends and the fact that Atlanta’s offense just isn’t scoring well lately with just 77 PPG the past 8 games. With Seattle being the worst shooting and second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA, I’m seeing these squads fall short of the total again tonight.

Degenerates

NFL Minnesota Vikings/Seattle Seahawks Over 35 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NFL Network

Since football season is getting here quickly, it’s a good time to remind our brains of key numbers like this total of 35, or 5 touchdowns. Now it is the preseason, where teams often go for 2-point conversions to try to avoid overtime, so those standard numbers aren’t as predictive. But the preseason also tends to get over this kind of total in general, with games going over totals of 37 or lower at about a 59% clip.

The Vikings are also 7-3 over this total in their past 10 preseason games, with Seattle going 6-4 to the over. We’ll see what kind of work the starters get here if any, but just based on the numbers I’m willing to take a shot on the over and feel like football is truly here.

Tiny Nick is 1442-1276 ATS (+72.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.