Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/08

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

It was always going to be unsustainable for Mitch Keller to pitch at a level that generated Cy Young buzz. The regression monster has definitely arrived for him, as the Pittsburgh righty has posted a 9.97 ERA since his appearance in the All-Star game. The one lineup you’d least want to see when struggling is this Braves team, especially when they’re looking to atone for 3 straight losses. Keller definitely doesn’t want to see this team again, as he’s allowed a career .351 average and .979 OPS to them.

I think Atlanta will need to score plenty of runs to support Yonny Chirinos though, since the righty was acquired as a stop-gap until their best arms get back healthy. Chirinos hasn’t looked great in his two appearances for the Braves, which notably both finished with 17 total runs. He’s also been outperforming his underlying metrics which suggest he’s due for some rough outings. The Pirates don’t need to crush him for this bet, just contribute enough in a game where I see Atlanta doing most of the work.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/NY Mets Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

The Mets finally got the bats back on track yesterday after an ugly stretch of games, taking advantage of some weak Chicago pitching. They’ll see more tonight with Jameson Taillon taking the mound. Even though the Cubs righty has looked good over his past 5 starts, his poor underlying and expected metrics haven’t changed, so his luck should run out soon. New York keeps getting better against righties, and the Cubs keep giving up runs in bunches, so I think the Mets should be just fine here.

They’ll be fine until you consider who’s pitching for them tonight, as another opportunity to fade Carlos Carrasco is here. The Mets righty has been just plain awful lately, posting a 12.33 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in his past 4 starts. He’s been at his worst in Citi Field, allowing an 8.51 ERA and .315 opponent batting average, and now has to face a Cubs offense that’s been setting records lately. Mets pitching has been getting rocked by some mediocre lineups the past couple weeks, and the Cubs should make things even worse to propel this game over the number.

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

Dodger games have been just wild lately with their offense being red hot while essentially their entire pitching staff struggles. Their past 20 games have averaged 11.5 runs with LA accounting for 6.6 of those. There’s a reason why the Dodgers have the best over record in the league, including when on the road, and there should be another here. These teams have averaged 10 runs per game in their 8 meetings, but those all came in early April before scoring really picked up across the league.

The Diamondbacks have certainly been in a slump offensively, but they’ve faced a lot of good pitching. Tonight should be an opportunity to turn that around against Julio Urias and his 7.88 ERA on the road, plus the always generous LA bullpen. The Dodgers should also tee off on Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt here, who has been rocked at home for an 8.86 ERA and .344 opponent batting average. His expected metrics suggest those numbers are fairly reasonable, so the deadly Dodger lineup should generate plenty of scoring to help get this over the total.

WNBA (1 Unit) Chicago Sky Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV

Well Chicago is certainly on one right now, as the Sky have put up 104 points in 3 straight games. Since breaking out of a 4-game slump in the middle of last month, the Sky have averaged 95.2 PPG over their past 6 games. Minnesota has played some slower-paced games recently, but this Lynx defense is still second-worst in the league by points allowed. The Lynx also struggle to guard the three which Chicago is shooting extremely well during their hot streak. This number is certainly inflated to reflect Chicago’s recent form, but I can’t expect anything less from a team that’s this red hot.

WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Dallas Wings 1st Half Over 88.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

It will be interesting to see how the Aces respond to being absolutely demolished on national TV by the Liberty, but I can’t imagine they’re in a good mood. In the games following their other two losses this season Las Vegas came out firing, putting up 54 and 56 points before halftime in first halves that both went well over this number. I think they’ll be able to drive the scoring again here with Dallas struggling so much defensively.

The Wings have allowed exactly 104 points in 3 of their past 4 games, including once to the Aces. With Vegas likely to experience positive regression off a 32.9% shooting day, those defensive issues aren’t likely to improve for Dallas, especially with their high tempo. First halves in the three meetings between these teams have averaged 90.3 points, and with motivation for Vegas and defensive issues for Dallas, that seems like the floor in this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1441-1272 ATS (+74.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.