Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/03

Locks

MLB (1.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 10 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

I’m bringing out the hammer one more time as these teams wrap up their wild 4-game set. I can’t recall ever seeing a 29-run game be followed by a 22-run game, but what the Cubs did in scoring 36 runs in two games hasn’t been done since 1897. It’ll eventually cool off, but why would that be tonight against Luke Weaver of all people? Weaver’s starts have been a great over bet for two months, and the Cubs lineup has a cumulative .326 average and 1.070 OPS against him in their careers.

It would not surprise me in the least if Chicago cashed this over on their own again tonight. But the best part of this series is having Cincinnati’s prolific offense on the other side, which has scored 7.3 runs per game against the Cubs this year. I think they’re in line for plenty more here against Jameson Taillon, who’s been crushed at Wrigley this year for a 6.43 ERA and .317 opponent batting average. Both pitching staffs are worn out, both offenses are locked in, and anyone advocating for the under here needs a wellness check.

Degenerates

NFL Cleveland Browns/NY Jets Over 33.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I don’t care if it’s third-string players you’ll never hear from again, I’m just happy that there’s some form of NFL football every week from now until February. It seems that’s a common sentiment around the public betting community, but not in the way you might expect.

As much excitement as there is for something to replace the awfulness of the MLB grind, plus the public’s love of overs, it’s shocking to see 78% of the public come in on the under. I’m not convinced despite how vanilla the Hall of Fame Game typically is, and if it’s football season we might as well fade the public.

It’s easy to look at the past 10 HOF games and see 7 of them go under this number, but I think there’s a sneaky element of this game to drive scoring. Three of the QB’s slated to see the most time in this game are poor passers but excellent runners, so I think we see a lot of 6-back offense here instead of vanilla handoffs. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski also has a history of scoring a lot of points in the preseason, so I’m siding with what the books need to start this season and looking to the over.

Tiny Nick is 1434-1265 ATS (+75.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.