Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/02

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays ML @ NY Yankees (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on Prime Video

If ever there was a team that needed an injection of life at the trade deadline, it’s this Yankees bunch. Ok, my Twins qualify there too, but New York essentially standing pat yesterday is all but an admission that this season is toast for them. I don’t think that’s going to be well-received in the clubhouse, and makes facing a team well above you in the standings that much more difficult.

It’ll be tough for the Rays to go in and sweep the Yanks here, but they have their best arm going in Shane McClanahan to do it. Key for Shane Mac is his strength against right-handed bats, only allowing a .206 average, which should keep the Yankees quiet since they’re overly reliant on righty hitters.

Tampa’s average of 6 runs per game against New York this year will be tough to replicate against Gerrit Cole, but the Yankee ace does have a 6.30 ERA in two starts against them this season. Money has been quietly coming in on Tampa here to shorten their underdog price, and I’ll take a shot that they complete the sweep.

MLB (1.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

It’s hammer time for this bet that I didn’t need one extra second to think about. Honestly I didn’t even need to check the infamous Wrigley Field wind, which is blowing out to left in case you were wondering. This isn’t a reaction to last night when these teams combined for 29 runs, it’s the fact that if last night’s game had finished 1-0 they’d still be averaging 11 runs per game in the season series.

More are coming today with this starting pitcher matchup, as Brandon Williamson faces Drew Smyly. With bullpens worn out from constant slugfests for both teams, those starters will get more time. Smyly has a 5.94 ERA at home and a 10.61 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season, so Cincy’s bats should stay hot. Williamson was also hit hard in his only action against Chicago this year, and the Cubbies have now scored double-digit runs themselves 5 times since the All-Star break. All these teams do is cash overs against each other, and I have to count on another tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Oakland A’s/LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

I can actually understand why this total opened seemingly low at 9 thanks to strange offensive struggles for the Dodgers. I can also understand why it was immediately bet to the over, and I see that as the correct side. Those scoring woes for LA where they only managed 3.3 runs in a 2-4 home stretch had to get cured eventually, and nothing helps quite like facing Oakland’s pitching.

With a bounce back of 7 runs last night, I’m expecting the Dodgers to keep things rolling tonight against Hogan Harris, a lefty who puts LA in their better run-producing split. Even against the lowly A’s, they’ll need to provide run support to regression-afflicted Tony Gonsolin, who has posted a 7.25 ERA his past 7 starts. Add in bullpens for both teams that are downright bad, and there should be plenty of scoring all game to push this over the total.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on CBSSN

If this game is anything like the two previous meetings between Dallas and Seattle, it’s definitely an over environment as they put up 186 and 212 in those games. But if it’s anything like Seattle’s recent history, that makes things much more difficult to project. The Storm are just 2-7-1 to the over their past 10 games, with wild variance in their scoring.

Dallas is far more consistent thanks to much better scorers and the fastest pace in the league. They’ve averaged 89.5 PPG their past 10, put up 95 and 103 in those games against Seattle, and should get to this number again no matter how the game result plays out.

Degenerates

PGA Tour Wyndham Championship (Thursday - Sunday on Golf Channel and CBS)

The Wyndham championship is at Sedgefield in rainy North Carolina and brings the final shot at the FedEx playoffs with it. This is a short course so the rain shouldn't be too damaging, but it is worth noting.

Again, many elite players are off this weekend and resting up for the playoffs. Only 14 of the top 50 golfers in the WGR will be present this weekend, and only a handful of golfers truly have a chance remaining to sneak in.

With a shorter course, strokes gain on approach and a consistent putter will play a large role.

To Win:

Russel Henley +2200

Denny McCarthy +3500

Aaron Rai +4000

Adam Hadwin +5500

Alex Smalley +6000

Top 20 Finish:

Alex Smalley +200

Chris Kirk +210

Lucas Glocer +310

Chez Reavie +420

Head to Head:

Ben Griffin over Brandon Wu (-110)

Brendan Todd over Gary Woodland (-110)

Tiny Nick is 1432-1263 ATS (+73.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.