Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/8

Locks

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 6 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

This Toronto Blue Jays offense can be fun to watch, especially when they get to tee off on a pitcher like the one they're facing tonight.

Baltimore Orioles starter Keegan Akin is making a strong case for "most exploitable pitcher" on a staff with lots of meatballers, and he has not fared well against Toronto either. Aikin has posted a 12.18 ERA in his last 4 starts, and the opposing team has gone over this total in all of them while averaging 9.5 runs per game.

One of those starts was 12 days ago against this Blue Jays team where Aikin didn’t make it out of the 5th inning, giving up 6 runs in a 12-4 Toronto rout. The Blue Jays are now averaging 7.1 runs per game against Baltimore in the season series after putting up a 10-spot last night against another bad Baltimore starter.

With the wind blowing out of Camden Yards tonight, I expect Aikin and the bad relievers behind him to keep getting rocked by this powerful Toronto lineup.

NBA - Milwaukee Bucks/Phoenix Suns Over 220.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC

Tuesday’s Game 1 finished over the closing total as well as this number, and that was despite some stats that I think will lead to even higher scoring in this game if they revert back to the mean.

First is the shooting from both teams, as the Phoenix Suns finished 2nd and the Milwaukee Bucks 3rd in overall shooting percentage this season. With both teams shooting a few percentage points below their standard in Game 1, there’s plenty of reason to believe more efficient offense is coming tonight.

There was also a big scoring drought in the 2nd quarter on Tuesday that actually held the first half under its total, and is often a death knell for full game overs. That stretch was not reflective of the full game trend though, and avoiding those stretches going forward will help buoy scoring as well.

Last is the performance of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who only managed 20 points in 35 minutes on Tuesday. If the Bucks are to be more competitive in this game, they’ll need the Giannis that scored 80 points in 2 games against the Suns this regular season. I see him shaking off the rust and playing more minutes tonight which translates to more scoring overall.

Game 1 was played at a relatively high pace with lots of fast break points, more than both of their very high-scoring regular-season meetings in fact. So with improvement in a few statistical categories, I see this Game 2 being an easy over as well.

Bonus Bet: Phoenix Suns Team Total Over 112.5 (-110):

A strange aspect of the playoff run for Milwaukee is that the three highest points outputs by any team in any of their games have come in their three Game 2’s. Those have all been blowouts with the Bucks scoring 132 and 125, and getting 125 put on them by the Brooklyn Nets. I see the Suns as the next team to have a high-scoring Game 2, as they seem to have shaken off the offensive woes that made for some ugly games last round. They’ve now cleared this total in 9 of their past 13 playoff games, and with the expectation that they improve their shooting from Tuesday, they can easily clear it again.

Degenerates

MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

This is a very low total. But it’s that low for very good reason given the offensive futility of the Pittsburgh Pirates, plus the strength of the pitching they’ll see tonight.

It’s been a rough stretch for the Pirates offense. They’ve failed to clear this total in 9 of their past 10 games, averaging 2.4 runs per game in that stretch. They also struggle to produce on the road, scoring almost a full run per game less as their batting average and OPS take big dips.

The Pirates should continue those struggles against New York Mets starter Taijuan Walker tonight, who has been excellent recently, especially at home. Walker comes into this game with a 1.52 ERA and .171 on-base average in his starts at Citi Field this season. None of those seven starts have seen the opposing team clear this total, and it’s only happened in three of his 15 starts overall.

The Mets have relied all season on strong pitching to win low-scoring games, and I see their No. 2 starter holding down the struggling Pirates offense in this one.

Tiny Nick is 322-221 ATS (+86 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.